Wednesday, October 14
Compare these teams
2–4
at
Sam Houston
1–4
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTElliott T. Bowers StadiumHuntsville, TX
Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:21 PM CT · National Weather Service
Huntsville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear84°FSE 9 mphGusts 22 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
50%
Western Kentucky win probability
Sam Houston 50%
Western Kentucky by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.1 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Western Kentucky's case
Western Kentucky's defense was in the 88th percentile for success rate allowed last season. Sam Houston's offense was in the 8th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbers02 · Sam Houston's answer
In every matchup we could rate last season, the Sam Houston unit ranked well below the Western Kentucky unit it faced.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
Western Kentucky's leading passer threw 56% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Maverick McIvor · 56% of charted pass attempts
249 of 254 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 208 short · 41 deep · 5 not stated
The Western Kentucky offense in 2025
QB · 8 games
183/273 · 67% season
Last game
Southern Miss · Dec 23, 2025: 12/19, 199 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Southern Miss · Dec 23, 2025: 7 carries, 65 yds, 1 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
Southern Miss · Dec 23, 2025: 5 rec, −1 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick McIvorQB | 8 | 183 / 273 | 2,062 | 7.6 | 12 | 6 |
| Rodney Tisdale Jr.QB | 8 | 139 / 212 | 1,432 | 6.8 | 9 | 7 |
| Cameron FlowersWR | 4 | 3 / 4 | 44 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tucker ParksQB | 1 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvis ParrishRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter WatsonQB | 7 | 104 / 182 | 1,108 | 6.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Landyn LockeQB | 6 | 71 / 141 | 765 | 5.4 | 4 | 4 |
| Mabrey MettauerQB | 6 | 36 / 61 | 293 | 4.8 | 3 | 2 |
| DJ BaileyQB | 1 | 2 / 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nico OttomanelliPK | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Western Kentucky's line averages 311.2 lbs against Sam Houston's 271.7 lbs front — an edge of 39.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky OLWestern Kentucky OL vs Sam Houston DL | 311.2 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
| Sam Houston OLSam Houston OL vs Western Kentucky DL | 307.9 lbs | 276.4 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Western Kentucky: solid line, circles · Sam Houston: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 23
W 27–16
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 63 recorded plays
L 34–37
52%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 66 recorded plays
L 10–13
23%
Success rate
−0.23
PPA / play
Tyson Helton
career +1.6 SP+ overall
Bodie Reeder
career +19.8 SP+ offense
Joe Bernardi
Co-offensive coordinator · career +19.8 SP+ offense
Davis Merritt
career +28.6 SP+ defense
Phil Longo
career −27.8 SP+ overall
Zack Patterson
career +15.3 SP+ offense
Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career +41.8 SP+ defense
2025 · Western Kentucky 41, Sam Houston 24
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
2024 · Western Kentucky 31, Sam Houston 14
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
2023 · Western Kentucky 28, Sam Houston 23
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season