Wednesday, October 14
Compare these teams
1–4
vs
Kennesaw State
1–4
7:30 PM ET6:30 PM CTPlaster Sports ComplexSpringfield, MO
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
At kickoff · 6:30 PM CT · Updated 1:56 PM CT · National Weather Service
Springfield · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Chance of thunderstorms78°FNW 2 mphGusts 7 mphPrecip 99%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
48%
Missouri State win probability
Kennesaw State 52%
Kennesaw State by 0.8
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.4 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Kennesaw State's case
Kennesaw State's offense was in the 39th percentile for per play last season. Missouri State's defense was in the 10th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Missouri State's answer
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Kennesaw State's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
The National Weather Service gives a 99% chance of precipitation at kickoff.
See the weatherOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Jacob Clark · 86% of charted pass attempts
330 of 341 have a direction · 11 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 289 short · 41 deep · 11 not stated
The Missouri State offense in 2025
QB · 12 games
247/376 · 66% season
Last game
Arkansas State · Dec 18, 2025: 25/35, 349 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
Arkansas State · Dec 18, 2025: 16 carries, 57 yds, 0 TD
WR · 12 games
Last game
Arkansas State · Dec 18, 2025: 4 rec, 96 yds, 1 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob ClarkQB | 12 | 247 / 376 | 3,244 | 8.6 | 28 | 11 |
| Deuce BaileyQB | 2 | 23 / 47 | 335 | 7.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Cole FeuerbacherQB | 2 | 6 / 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Jmariyae RobinsonWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reggie BranchRB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 29 | 29.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari OdomQB | 12 | 189 / 291 | 2,594 | 8.9 | 19 | 8 |
| Dexter Williams IIQB | 7 | 67 / 125 | 787 | 6.3 | 6 | 3 |
| Tommy UlatowskiQB | 2 | 3 / 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 |
| Christian MossWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 1 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Missouri State's line averages 303.7 lbs against Kennesaw State's 276.2 lbs front — an edge of 27.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri State OLMissouri State OL vs Kennesaw State DL | 303.7 lbs | 276.2 lbs |
| Kennesaw State OLKennesaw State OL vs Missouri State DL | 305.8 lbs | 261.2 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Missouri State: solid line, circles · Kennesaw State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 18
L 28–34
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 58 recorded plays
L 30–42
41%
Success rate
0.24
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 63 recorded plays
L 34–41
51%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play
Casey Woods
no career rating on file
Mark Cala
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Nick Petrino
career +22.9 SP+ offense
Jack Curtis
career +29.3 SP+ defense
L. D. Scott
career +29.3 SP+ defense
Jerry Mack
career −5.4 SP+ overall
Mitch Militello
career +26.4 SP+ offense
Marc Mattioli
career +30.2 SP+ defense
2025 · Kennesaw State 41, Missouri State 34
Fifth Third Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season