Tuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
3–2
at
Jacksonville State
4–2
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAmFirst StadiumJacksonville, AL
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Jacksonville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
49%
Florida International win probability
Jacksonville State 51%
Jacksonville State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Jacksonville State's case
Jacksonville State's offense was in the 55th percentile for points per game last season. Florida International's defense was in the 23rd percentile for per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Florida International's answer
None of its defense's numbers stood out against Jacksonville State's offense last season.
03 · What could swing it
Florida International's leading passer threw 66% of the team's charted attempts last season.
See where they attackOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Keyone Jenkins · 66% of charted pass attempts
244 of 249 have a direction · 5 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 217 short · 27 deep · 5 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go left (48%). Right gives the most yards per attempt: 7.2 over 73 attempts with a result.
The Florida International offense in 2025
QB · 10 games
164/263 · 62% season
Last game
UTSA · Dec 26, 2025: 7/14, 49 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 13 games
Last game
UTSA · Dec 26, 2025: 8 carries, 36 yds, 0 TD
WR · 13 games
Last game
UTSA · Dec 26, 2025: 3 rec, 24 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keyone JenkinsQB | 10 | 164 / 263 | 1,742 | 6.6 | 9 | 6 |
| Joe PesanskyQB | 9 | 89 / 159 | 1,021 | 6.4 | 11 | 7 |
| Clayton DeesQB | 1 | 3 / 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas PayneTE | 1 | 1 / 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo StoneWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 14 games in this window · 14 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB | 12 | 130 / 211 | 1,514 | 7.2 | 9 | 4 |
| Gavin WimsattQB | 10 | 63 / 112 | 731 | 6.5 | 4 | 2 |
| Cade CunninghamQB | 2 | 0 / 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cade BackeP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gabe GloverWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justus SavageRB | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Florida International's line averages 303.4 lbs against Jacksonville State's 270.3 lbs front — an edge of 33.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International OLFlorida International OL vs Jacksonville State DL | 303.4 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
| Jacksonville State OLJacksonville State OL vs Florida International DL | 297.0 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Florida International: solid line, circles · Jacksonville State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Dec 26
L 20–57
Play stats pending
Nov 29 · 55 recorded plays
W 56–16
53%
Success rate
0.38
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 70 recorded plays
W 27–21
34%
Success rate
0.14
PPA / play
Willie Simmons
career −10.5 SP+ overall
Taylor Housewright
no career rating on file
Brian Williams
career +25.3 SP+ defense
2025 · Florida International 27, Jacksonville State 21
Pitbull Stadium
2024 · Jacksonville State 34, Florida International 31
AmFirst Stadium
2023 · Jacksonville State 41, Florida International 16
FIU Stadium
2020 · Jacksonville State 19, Florida International 10
FIU Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season