Tuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
3–2
at
Jacksonville State
4–2
8:00 PM ET7:00 PM CTAmFirst StadiumJacksonville, AL
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
At kickoff · 7:00 PM CT · Updated 1:26 PM CT · National Weather Service
Jacksonville · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear75°FS 1 mphGusts 5 mphPrecip 0%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
49%
Florida International win probability
Jacksonville State 51%
Jacksonville State by 0.2
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Florida International's case
Florida International's defense is in the 96th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Jacksonville State's offense is in the 41st percentile for points per game.
See the underlying numbers02 · Jacksonville State's answer
Jacksonville State's defense is in the 55th percentile for allowed per play this season. Florida International's offense is in the 9th percentile for PPA per play.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Florida International a 49% chance to win and predicts Jacksonville State by 0.2 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
JJ Kohl · 93% of charted pass attempts
134 of 140 have a direction · 6 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 117 short · 17 deep · 6 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go right (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 9.0 over 43 attempts with a result.
The Florida International offense in 2026
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
92/161 · 57% season
Last game
New Mexico State · Oct 7, 2026: 12/21, 115 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
New Mexico State · Oct 7, 2026: 16 carries, 37 yds, 1 TD
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
New Mexico State · Oct 7, 2026: 1 rec, 19 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. KohlQB | 5 | 92 / 161 | 1,180 | 7.3 | 5 | 7 |
| Zach MarkerQB | 2 | 7 / 11 | 97 | 8.8 | 0 | 0 |
| JoJo StoneWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caden CreelQB | 6 | 113 / 170 | 1,423 | 8.4 | 10 | 5 |
| Jack MoranQB | 1 | 2 / 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Carter LewisP | 1 | 1 / 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jamill WilliamsWR | 1 | 1 / 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 | 0 |
4 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Florida International's line averages 303.4 lbs against Jacksonville State's 270.3 lbs front — an edge of 33.1 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International OLFlorida International OL vs Jacksonville State DL | 303.4 lbs | 270.3 lbs |
| Jacksonville State OLJacksonville State OL vs Florida International DL | 297.0 lbs | 266.0 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Florida International: solid line, circles · Jacksonville State: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 7 · 68 recorded plays
W 22–3
38%
Success rate
−0.07
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 60 recorded plays
vs FCS
W 20–3
43%
Success rate
0.09
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 78 recorded plays
L 10–16
36%
Success rate
−0.03
PPA / play
Willie Simmons
career −10.5 SP+ overall
Taylor Housewright
no career rating on file
Brian Williams
career +25.3 SP+ defense
2025 · Florida International 27, Jacksonville State 21
Pitbull Stadium
2024 · Jacksonville State 34, Florida International 31
AmFirst Stadium
2023 · Jacksonville State 41, Florida International 16
FIU Stadium
2020 · Jacksonville State 19, Florida International 10
FIU Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date