Tuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
2–3
vs
Delaware
2–3
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTJohnny "Red" Floyd StadiumMurfreesboro, TN
Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service
Murfreesboro · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Evidence sections show 2025 background.
50%
Middle Tennessee win probability
Delaware 50%
Middle Tennessee by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
01 · Middle Tennessee's case
Middle Tennessee's offense was in the 36th percentile for per play last season. Delaware's defense was in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · Delaware's answer
Delaware's offense was in the 61st percentile for predicted points added (PPA) per play last season. Middle Tennessee's defense was in the 18th percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball03 · What could swing it
The model gives Middle Tennessee a 50% chance to win and predicts Middle Tennessee by 0.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2025 full season, garbage time included. Points per game: every 2025 game. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Nicholas Vattiato · 72% of charted pass attempts
349 of 356 have a direction · 7 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 12 of 12 games
Efficiency charted in 12 of 12 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 317 short · 32 deep · 7 not stated
The Middle Tennessee offense in 2025
QB · 9 games
219/357 · 61% season
Last game
Florida International · Nov 8, 2025: 26/37, 242 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT
RB · 11 games
Last game
New Mexico State · Nov 29, 2025: 20 carries, 95 yds, 0 TD
WR · 11 games
Last game
New Mexico State · Nov 29, 2025: 8 rec, 69 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 12 games in this window · 12 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick VattiatoQB | 9 | 219 / 357 | 2,157 | 6.0 | 16 | 7 |
| Roman GaglianoQB | 5 | 78 / 135 | 1,011 | 7.5 | 7 | 0 |
| AJ JonesWR | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashton LoganP | 1 | 0 / 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanley Anderson-LoftonQB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 0 |
5 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2025 evidence · 13 games in this window · 13 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick MinicucciQB | 13 | 322 / 514 | 3,671 | 7.1 | 23 | 7 |
| Braden StreeterQB | 2 | 12 / 19 | 98 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Zach MarkerQB | 1 | 3 / 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Middle Tennessee's line averages 305.2 lbs against Delaware's 269.7 lbs front — an edge of 35.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee OLMiddle Tennessee OL vs Delaware DL | 305.2 lbs | 269.7 lbs |
| Delaware OLDelaware OL vs Middle Tennessee DL | 305.5 lbs | 287.6 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2025 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2025 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Middle Tennessee: solid line, circles · Delaware: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2025 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Nov 29 · 77 recorded plays
W 31–24
44%
Success rate
0.17
PPA / play
Nov 22 · 68 recorded plays
W 31–17
53%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play
Nov 15 · 72 recorded plays
L 26–42
42%
Success rate
0.29
PPA / play
Derek Mason
career −7.4 SP+ overall
Anthony Scelfo
no career rating on file
Brian Stewart
career +30.3 SP+ defense
Ryan Carty
career −10.9 SP+ overall
2025 · Delaware 31, Middle Tennessee 28
Delaware Stadium
Evidence window: 2025 full season