01 · Delaware's case
Delaware's defense leads its matchup in allowed
Delaware's defense is in the 50th percentile for success rate allowed this season. Middle Tennessee's offense is in the 15th percentile for success rate.
See the underlying numbersTuesday, October 13
Compare these teams
Middle Tennessee
2–3
vs
Delaware
2–3
7:00 PM ET6:00 PM CTJohnny "Red" Floyd StadiumMurfreesboro, TN
Weather
Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
At kickoff · 6:00 PM CT · Updated 1:31 PM CT · National Weather Service
Hour by hour
Murfreesboro · local time (CT)
Kickoff hour
Clear84°FSW 7 mphGusts 10 mphPrecip 1%
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Game forecast
50%
Middle Tennessee win probability
Delaware 50%
Middle Tennessee by 0.1
Projected margin
Margin uncertainty ±14.0 points
Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record
The game in a minute
02 · Middle Tennessee's answer
Middle Tennessee has no clear answer on this matchup
None of its offense's numbers stands out against Delaware's defense.
03 · What could swing it
The forecast comes with a range
The model gives Delaware a 50% chance to win and predicts Middle Tennessee by 0.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±14.0 points.
See the forecastWhen each team has the ball
Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
When Middle Tennessee has the ball
- Middle Tennessee offense
- 35th
- Delaware defense
- 36th
Show the underlying numbers
- Middle Tennessee offensive per play
- 0.1035th percentile · #87 nationally
- Delaware PPA allowed per play
- 0.0936th percentile · #81 nationally
- Middle Tennessee success rate
- 39%15th percentile · #118 nationally
- Delaware success rate allowed
- 40%50th percentile · #68 nationally
- Middle Tennessee points per game
- 20.816th percentile · #116 nationally
- Delaware per game
- 25.637th percentile · #87 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
Middle Tennessee offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.17
- Rush success
- 42.2%
Delaware defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.19
- Rush success allowed
- 47.9%
When Delaware has the ball
- Delaware offense
- 11th
- Middle Tennessee defense
- 9th
Show the underlying numbers
- Delaware offensive PPA per play
- 0.0011th percentile · #121 nationally
- Middle Tennessee PPA allowed per play
- 0.229th percentile · #124 nationally
- Delaware success rate
- 38%10th percentile · #124 nationally
- Middle Tennessee success rate allowed
- 51%2nd percentile · #135 nationally
- Delaware points per game
- 21.419th percentile · #112 nationally
- Middle Tennessee points allowed per game
- 28.020th percentile · #108 nationally
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Delaware offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness
- 1.27
- Rush success
- 40.3%
Middle Tennessee defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded
- Explosiveness allowed
- 1.09
- Rush success allowed
- 53.0%
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Where they attack.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic
Offense moving upfield ↑
Roman Gagliano · 100% of charted pass attempts
Throwing left
- Share of charted plays
- 37%
- Usage: charted in this direction
- 48 attempts
- Yards / attempt
- 5.2
- over 48 attempts with a result
- Completion rate
- 50%
- over 48 attempts with a result
130 of 131 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 4 of 5 games
Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 114 short · 16 deep · 1 not stated
Who's driving the offense?
The Middle Tennessee offense in 2026
Roman Gagliano
QB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
88/156 · 56% season
- Passing yards
- 913
- Touchdowns
- 8
- Interception
- 1
Last game
Kansas · Oct 3, 2026: 9/26, 81 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Antonio Martin
RB · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
- Carries
- 72
- Rushing yards
- 385
- Touchdown
- 1
Last game
Kansas · Oct 3, 2026: 8 carries, 40 yds, 0 TD
Cam'Ron Lacy
WR · 5 games
Photo: ESPN
- Receptions
- 31
- Receiving yards
- 335
- Touchdowns
- 4
Last game
Kansas · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 25 yds, 0 TD
Middle Tennessee player tables
Who is producing
Middle Tennessee player production
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman GaglianoQB | 5 | 88 / 156 | 913 | 5.9 | 8 | 1 |
1 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Delaware player tables
Who is producing
Delaware player production
2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick MinicucciQB | 4 | 59 / 103 | 838 | 8.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Braden StreeterQB | 4 | 12 / 35 | 175 | 5.0 | 1 | 3 |
| EJ Archield Jr.QB | 1 | 10 / 19 | 137 | 7.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler BellQB | 1 | 4 / 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 1 | 0 |
| Riley TrujilloQB | 1 | 1 / 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 | 0 |
| Viron Ellison Jr.RB | 1 | 1 / 1 | 75 | 75.0 | 1 | 0 |
6 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
In the trenches
Middle Tennessee's line averages 305.2 lbs against Delaware's 269.7 lbs front — an edge of 35.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee OLMiddle Tennessee OL vs Delaware DL | 305.2 lbs | 269.7 lbs |
| Delaware OLDelaware OL vs Middle Tennessee DL | 305.5 lbs | 287.6 lbs |
- Middle Tennessee
- Delaware
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
How these teams stack up
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Middle Tennessee
- Points per game
- 20.8#116 nationally · 16th percentile · 5 games
- Points allowed per game
- 28.0#108 nationally · 20th percentile · 5 games
- Returning production
- 33% of 2025 PPA returns · 38th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 43% · 112 of 112 with a class year
Delaware
- Points per game
- 21.4#112 nationally · 19th percentile · 5 games
- Points allowed per game
- 25.6#87 nationally · 37th percentile · 5 games
- Returning production
- 85% of 2025 PPA returns · 94th percentile
- Upperclassmen
- 58% · 152 of 152 with a class year
Recruiting
Middle Tennessee
- 2026 signing class · #119 nationally
- 14th percentile · 164.9 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #115 nationally
- 17th percentile · −0.78 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #109 nationally
- 21st percentile · 571.5
Delaware
- 2026 signing class · #115 nationally
- 17th percentile · 167.0 pts
- 4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2024–2026 · #133 nationally
- 4th percentile · −1.64 (0 is the FBS average)
- Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #134 nationally
- 3rd percentile · 483.5
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentile profiles
- Middle Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.5, 9th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Delaware Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.1, 22nd percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Middle Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 35.1, 9th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Delaware Defense · SP+ 2026: 32.9, 15th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Middle Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Delaware Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (CFBD, 2026 season to date)
- Middle Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 164.9 pts, 14th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Delaware Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 167.0 pts, 17th percentile (CFBD, 2026 signing class)
- Middle Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 33% returning, 38th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
- Delaware Experience · returning production 2026: 85% returning, 94th percentile (CFBD, 2026 roster)
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
Middle Tennessee: solid line, circles · Delaware: dashed line, squares
Middle Tennessee
- Offense · 2026
- 15.5 · 9th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 35.1 · 9th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- 0.1 · 50th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 164.9 pts · 14th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 33% returning · 38th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Delaware
- Offense · SP+ 2026
- 20.1 · 22nd percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Defense · SP+ 2026
- 32.9 · 15th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Special teams · SP+ 2026
- −0.3 · 12th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 season to date
- Recruiting · 2026 signing class
- 167.0 pts · 17th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 signing class
- Experience · returning production 2026
- 85% returning · 94th percentile
- CFBD, 2026 roster
Middle Tennessee's recent games
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 3 · 31 recorded plays
at Kansas
L 0–55
16%
Success rate
−0.50
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 58 recorded plays
at Jacksonville State
L 13–23
43%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Sep 19 · 69 recorded plays
vs Nevada
W 27–20
36%
Success rate
0.15
PPA / play
The coaching staff
Middle Tennessee
- Head coach
Derek Mason
career −7.4 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
Anthony Scelfo
no career rating on file
- Defensive coordinator
Brian Stewart
career +30.3 SP+ defense
Delaware
- Head coach
Ryan Carty
career −10.9 SP+ overall
- Offensive coordinator
- Not on file
- Defensive coordinator
- Not on file
Head-to-head
Delaware leads 1–0 since 2000
2025 · Delaware 31, Middle Tennessee 28
Delaware Stadium
Evidence and sources
Evidence window: 2026 season to date
- Middle Tennessee: 5 games
- Delaware: 5 games
- Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
- Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
- The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
- Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
- In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
- Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
- Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
- Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD