2026 Western Michigan vs 2026 Central Michigan
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Western Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.1, 24th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.2, 7th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.5, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Central Michigan Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 171.4 pts, 19th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Central Michigan Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 178.9 pts, 31st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Western Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 100% returning, 100th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Central Michigan Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 62nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Western Michigan | 2026 Central Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1446th percentile | 0.0625th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | 0.1522nd percentile |
| Points per game | 25.734th percentile6 games | 17.07th percentile6 games |
| per game | 17.382nd percentile6 games | 26.330th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 36th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 25th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 9th percentile
Campus distance
100 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Western Michigan OL vs 2026 Central Michigan DL | 302.9 lbs | 259.3 lbs |
| 2026 Central Michigan OL vs 2026 Western Michigan DL | 287.6 lbs | 265.6 lbs |
2026 Western Michigan line yards 2.98 · 2026 Central Michigan stuff rate 14.6%
2026 Central Michigan line yards 3.33 · 2026 Western Michigan stuff rate 17.0%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Western Michigan leads 15–11 since 2000
Western Michigan has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Western Michigan 24–21 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2024 | Western Michigan 14–16 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2023 | Western Michigan 38–28 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2022 | Western Michigan 12–10 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2021 | Western Michigan 30–42 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2020 | Western Michigan 52–44 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2019 | Western Michigan 31–15 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2018 | Western Michigan 35–10 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2017 | Western Michigan 28–35 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2016 | Western Michigan 49–10 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2015 | Western Michigan 41–39 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2014 | Western Michigan 32–20 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2013 | Western Michigan 22–27 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2012 | Western Michigan 42–31 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2011 | Western Michigan 44–14 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2010 | Western Michigan 22–26 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2009 | Western Michigan 23–34 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2008 | Western Michigan 28–38 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2007 | Western Michigan 31–34 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2006 | Western Michigan 7–31 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2005 | Western Michigan 31–24 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2004 | Western Michigan 21–24 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2003 | Western Michigan 44–21 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2002 | Western Michigan 35–10 Central Michigan | Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Central Michigan home |
| 2001 | Western Michigan 20–17 Central Michigan | Waldo Stadium · Western Michigan home |
| 2000 | Western Michigan 17–21 Central Michigan | Central Michigan home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Lance Taylor
OC
- Walt Bell
career average +27.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.8 plays a game, 12th percentile)
DC
- Duane Vaughn (co-DC)
- Greer Martini
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
HC
- Matt Drinkall
OC
- Derek Fulton (co-OC)
- Jim Chapin
career average +17.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 32% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)
DC
- Sean Cronin
career average +25.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Western Michigan at Central Michigan · October 17, 2026
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