2026 Washington vs 2026 Washington State
Hypothetical
84% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Washington Offense · SP+ 2026: 28.2, 57th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Offense · SP+ 2026: 15.3, 8th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.1, 77th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.0, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Washington Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 262.3 pts, 91st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Washington State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 159.3 pts, 7th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Washington Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 64th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Washington State Experience · returning production 2026: 91% returning, 96th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Washington | 2026 Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1343rd percentile | −0.113rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0070th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 26.236th percentile6 games | 18.511th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.257th percentile6 games | 23.747th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 80th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 63rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 41st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 19th percentile
Campus distance
250 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Washington OL vs 2026 Washington State DL | 321.6 lbs | 273.6 lbs |
| 2026 Washington State OL vs 2026 Washington DL | 301.3 lbs | 277.6 lbs |
2026 Washington line yards 2.90 · 2026 Washington State stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Washington State line yards 2.68 · 2026 Washington stuff rate 26.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Washington leads 19–7 since 2000
Washington has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Washington 24–10 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2025 | Washington 59–24 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2024 | Washington 19–24 Washington State | Neutral site |
| 2023 | Washington 24–21 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2022 | Washington 51–33 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2021 | Washington 13–40 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2019 | Washington 31–13 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2018 | Washington 28–15 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2017 | Washington 41–14 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2016 | Washington 45–17 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2015 | Washington 45–10 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2014 | Washington 31–13 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2013 | Washington 27–17 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2012 | Washington 28–31 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2011 | Washington 38–21 Washington State | Washington home |
| 2010 | Washington 35–28 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2009 | Washington 30–0 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2008 | Washington 13–16 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2007 | Washington 35–42 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2006 | Washington 35–32 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2005 | Washington 22–26 Washington State | Washington home |
| 2004 | Washington 25–28 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2003 | Washington 27–19 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2002 | Washington 29–26 Washington State | Gesa Field · Washington State home |
| 2001 | Washington 26–14 Washington State | Husky Stadium · Washington home |
| 2000 | Washington 51–3 Washington State | Washington State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jedd Fisch
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)
DC
- Ryan Walters
career average +19.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Kirby Moore (First season as Washington State's head coach)
OC
- Matt Miller
career average +29.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 70th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Trent Bray
career average +20.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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