2026 Virginia Tech vs 2026 Maryland
Hypothetical
57% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Virginia Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 32.0, 73rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.4, 68th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.2, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.2 pts, 79th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Maryland Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 215.9 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Virginia Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 44th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Maryland Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 62nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Virginia Tech | 2026 Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2169th percentile | 0.0318th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0166th percentile | 0.0842nd percentile |
| Points per game | 37.782nd percentile6 games | 28.045th percentile6 games |
| per game | 20.767th percentile6 games | 32.79th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 72nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 72nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
Campus distance
225 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Virginia Tech OL vs 2026 Maryland DL | 320.6 lbs | 289.2 lbs |
| 2026 Maryland OL vs 2026 Virginia Tech DL | 311.2 lbs | 273.0 lbs |
2026 Virginia Tech line yards 2.81 · 2026 Maryland stuff rate 18.5%
2026 Maryland line yards 2.86 · 2026 Virginia Tech stuff rate 36.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Virginia Tech leads 5–2 since 2000
Virginia Tech has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Virginia Tech 35–26 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2021bowl/playoff | Virginia Tech 10–54 Maryland | Neutral site |
| 2013 | Virginia Tech 24–27 Maryland | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2009 | Virginia Tech 36–9 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2008 | Virginia Tech 23–13 Maryland | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
| 2005 | Virginia Tech 28–9 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2004 | Virginia Tech 55–6 Maryland | Lane Stadium · Virginia Tech home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- James Franklin (First season as Virginia Tech's head coach)
OC
- Ty Howle
career average +36.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 76th percentile of 2026 FBS; 76.0 plays a game, 95th percentile)
DC
- Brent Pry
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mike Locksley
OC
- Clint Trickett
career average +22.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 97th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.0 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (co-DC)
- Ted Monachino
career average +26.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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