2026 Vanderbilt vs 2026 Arkansas

Hypothetical

Vanderbilt by 1.5

54% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

VanderbiltPreseason baseline +18.4In-season results −9.3

ArkansasPreseason baseline +8.1In-season results −2.9

Arkansas home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Vanderbilt	2026 Arkansas
Offensive / play	0.0522nd percentile	0.0113th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1134th percentile	0.1718th percentile
Points per game	24.029th percentile6 games	19.314th percentile6 games
per game	29.515th percentile6 games	27.724th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Vanderbilt2026 Arkansas

Momentum

Vanderbilt→ steady (−8 pctl over 3 seasons)

Arkansas↘ falling (−45 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Vanderbilt

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 63rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 53rd percentile

Matching its talent (−10)

2026 Arkansas

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 76th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 38th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−38)

Campus distance

410 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Vanderbilt OL vs 2026 Arkansas DL	312.8 lbs	282.8 lbs
2026 Arkansas OL vs 2026 Vanderbilt DL	311.0 lbs	279.5 lbs

2026 Vanderbilt line yards 2.90 · 2026 Arkansas stuff rate 15.9%

2026 Arkansas line yards 2.59 · 2026 Vanderbilt stuff rate 18.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Arkansas leads 3–2 since 2000

Vanderbilt has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2018	Vanderbilt 45–31 Arkansas	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2011	Vanderbilt 28–31 Arkansas	FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home
2010	Vanderbilt 14–49 Arkansas	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home
2006	Vanderbilt 19–21 Arkansas	FirstBank Stadium · Vanderbilt home
2005	Vanderbilt 28–24 Arkansas	Razorback Stadium · Arkansas home

Coaching & program context

2026 Vanderbilt

Clark Lea

Tim Beck

career average +31.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 61st percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)

Steve Gregory

career average +23.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Arkansas

Ryan Silverfield (First season as Arkansas's head coach)

Tim Cramsey

career average +32.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.3 plays a game, 68th percentile)

Deron Wilson (co-DC)
Ron Roberts

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.