2026 UConn vs 2026 Temple
Hypothetical
56% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 UConn Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.1, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UConn Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.5, 24th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UConn Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Temple Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UConn Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 172.5 pts, 20th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Temple Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 192.2 pts, 51st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UConn Experience · returning production 2026: 2% returning, 4th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Temple Experience · returning production 2026: 37% returning, 46th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 UConn | 2026 Temple |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2271st percentile | 0.2064th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0842nd percentile | 0.1914th percentile |
| Points per game | 35.775th percentile6 games | 24.832nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 25.241st percentile6 games | 26.330th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 14th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 28th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 28th percentile
Campus distance
185 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 UConn OL vs 2026 Temple DL | 296.6 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
| 2026 Temple OL vs 2026 UConn DL | 301.1 lbs | 264.9 lbs |
2026 UConn line yards 3.20 · 2026 Temple stuff rate 14.5%
2026 Temple line yards 3.38 · 2026 UConn stuff rate 17.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Temple leads 9–7 since 2000
UConn has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | UConn 34–20 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2024 | UConn 29–20 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2019 | UConn 17–49 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2018 | UConn 7–57 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2017 | UConn 28–24 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2016 | UConn 0–21 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2015 | UConn 3–27 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2014 | UConn 10–36 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2013 | UConn 28–21 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2012 | UConn 14–17 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2010 | UConn 16–30 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2008 | UConn 12–9 Temple | Lincoln Financial Field · Temple home |
| 2007 | UConn 22–17 Temple | Pratt & Whitney Stadium · UConn home |
| 2004 | UConn 45–31 Temple | UConn home |
| 2002 | UConn 24–38 Temple | UConn home |
| 2001 | UConn 7–56 Temple | Temple home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jason Candle (First season as UConn's head coach)
OC
- Nunzio Campanile
no career track record on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.8 plays a game, 45th percentile)
DC
- Ryan Manalac
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- K.C. Keeler
OC
- Tyler Walker
career average +27.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 35% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.8 plays a game, 7th percentile)
DC
- Brian Smith
career average +34.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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