Friday, October 23
Compare these teams
3–3
vs
Massachusetts
4–2
7:00 PM ETPratt & Whitney StadiumEast Hartford, CT
Forecast available from Friday, October 16.
Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
01 · Massachusetts's case
Massachusetts's offense is in the 64th percentile for per play this season. UConn's defense is in the 42nd percentile for PPA allowed.
See when each team has the ball02 · UConn's answer
None of its defense's numbers stands out against Massachusetts's offense.
03 · What could swing it
There is no published forecast to cite for this game right now.
See the forecastOffensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.
PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.
Follow the direction. Check the production.
Offense moving upfield ↑
Kalieb Osborne · 93% of charted pass attempts
122 of 124 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded
Charted 5 of 6 games
Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games
Depth as written in the play-by-play: 94 short · 28 deep · 2 not stated
What to watch
Most charted attempts go left (43%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 16.0 over 31 attempts with a result.
The UConn offense in 2026
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
98/163 · 60% season
Last game
Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 17/23, 257 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
QB · 6 games
Photo: ESPN
Last game
Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 13 carries, 11 yds, 1 TD
WR · 6 games
Last game
Temple · Oct 10, 2026: 3 rec, 63 yds, 0 TD
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalieb OsborneQB | 6 | 98 / 163 | 1,421 | 8.7 | 10 | 2 |
| Tucker McDonaldQB | 3 | 9 / 11 | 118 | 10.7 | 1 | 1 |
2 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
Who is producing
2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view
Sorted by Completions and attempts, highest first
| Player | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Watson IIIQB | 5 | 74 / 100 | 820 | 8.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Aedan McCarthyQB | 2 | 17 / 33 | 182 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan InagawaQB | 1 | 6 / 6 | 83 | 13.8 | 1 | 0 |
3 players with recorded rows
Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.
UConn's line averages 296.6 lbs against Massachusetts's 273.1 lbs front — an edge of 23.5 lbs a man.
Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| UConn OLUConn OL vs Massachusetts DL | 296.6 lbs | 273.1 lbs |
| Massachusetts OLMassachusetts OL vs UConn DL | 314.7 lbs | 264.9 lbs |
Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.
2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.
Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.
Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights
UConn: solid line, circles · Massachusetts: dashed line, squares
Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time
Oct 10 · 64 recorded plays
W 34–20
52%
Success rate
0.32
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 77 recorded plays
L 41–42
44%
Success rate
0.12
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 60 recorded plays
L 21–24
38%
Success rate
0.11
PPA / play
Jason Candle
First season as UConn's head coach · career +2.0 SP+ overall
Photo: MrJacon000, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Manalac
no career rating on file
Joe Harasymiak
career −36.6 SP+ overall
2024 · UConn 47, Massachusetts 42
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2023 · UConn 31, Massachusetts 18
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2022 · UConn 27, Massachusetts 10
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
2021 · Massachusetts 27, UConn 13
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2019 · UConn 56, Massachusetts 35
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
2018 · Massachusetts 22, UConn 17
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
2012 · UConn 37, Massachusetts 0
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
Evidence window: 2026 season to date