2026 UCLA vs 2026 Oregon
Hypothetical
57% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 UCLA Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.3, 83rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.2, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.2, 82nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.4, 87th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oregon Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 196.6 pts, 55th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oregon Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.2 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UCLA Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning, 65th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Oregon Experience · returning production 2026: 75% returning, 88th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 UCLA | 2026 Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.1753rd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.20100th percentile | −0.0377th percentile |
| Points per game | 39.288th percentile5 games | 41.091st percentile5 games |
| per game | 18.079th percentile5 games | 22.058th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 57th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 88th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 97th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 92nd percentile
Campus distance
730 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 UCLA OL vs 2026 Oregon DL | 313.3 lbs | 308.9 lbs |
| 2026 Oregon OL vs 2026 UCLA DL | 313.2 lbs | 283.2 lbs |
2026 UCLA line yards 3.62 · 2026 Oregon stuff rate 19.5%
2026 Oregon line yards 3.06 · 2026 UCLA stuff rate 26.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Oregon leads 16–4 since 2000
UCLA has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | UCLA 17–15 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2024 | UCLA 13–34 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2022 | UCLA 30–45 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2021 | UCLA 31–34 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2020 | UCLA 35–38 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2018 | UCLA 21–42 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2017 | UCLA 31–14 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2014 | UCLA 30–42 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2013 | UCLA 14–42 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2011 | UCLA 31–49 Oregon | Oregon home |
| 2010 | UCLA 13–60 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2009 | UCLA 10–24 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2008 | UCLA 24–31 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2007 | UCLA 16–0 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2006 | UCLA 20–30 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2004 | UCLA 34–26 Oregon | Autzen Stadium · Oregon home |
| 2003 | UCLA 13–31 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2002 | UCLA 30–31 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2001 | UCLA 20–21 Oregon | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2000 | UCLA 10–29 Oregon | Oregon home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Bob Chesney (First season as UCLA's head coach)
OC
- Dean Kennedy
career average +32.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 12th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.2 plays a game, 47th percentile)
DC
- Colin Hitschler
career average +16.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Dan Lanning
OC
- Drew Mehringer
career average +28.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 87th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.4 plays a game, 72nd percentile)
DC
- Chris Hampton
career average +19.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
We could not check the schedule for a game between these teams.
Share this matchup
Pasting the link anywhere unfurls the graphic automatically.
