2026 UCLA vs 2026 California
Hypothetical
89% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 UCLA Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.3, 83rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 California Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 34th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.2, 82nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 California Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.6, 44th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 California Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UCLA Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 196.6 pts, 55th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 California Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 202.8 pts, 60th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UCLA Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning, 65th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 California Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning, 69th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 UCLA | 2026 California |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.0113th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.20100th percentile | 0.0648th percentile |
| Points per game | 39.288th percentile5 games | 26.738th percentile6 games |
| per game | 18.079th percentile5 games | 25.538th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 57th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 88th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 52nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 37th percentile
Campus distance
345 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 UCLA OL vs 2026 California DL | 313.3 lbs | 294.0 lbs |
| 2026 California OL vs 2026 UCLA DL | 317.3 lbs | 283.2 lbs |
2026 UCLA line yards 3.62 · 2026 California stuff rate 16.0%
2026 California line yards 2.42 · 2026 UCLA stuff rate 26.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · UCLA leads 14–11 since 2000
UCLA has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | UCLA 45–24 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2023 | UCLA 7–33 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2022 | UCLA 35–28 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2021 | UCLA 42–14 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2020 | UCLA 34–10 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2019 | UCLA 18–28 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2018 | UCLA 37–7 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2017 | UCLA 30–27 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2016 | UCLA 10–36 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2015 | UCLA 40–24 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2014 | UCLA 36–34 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2013 | UCLA 37–10 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2012 | UCLA 17–43 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2011 | UCLA 31–14 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2010 | UCLA 7–35 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2009 | UCLA 26–45 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2008 | UCLA 20–41 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2007 | UCLA 30–21 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2006 | UCLA 24–38 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2005 | UCLA 47–40 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2004 | UCLA 28–45 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2003 | UCLA 23–20 California | Rose Bowl · UCLA home |
| 2002 | UCLA 12–17 California | California Memorial Stadium · California home |
| 2001 | UCLA 56–17 California | UCLA home |
| 2000 | UCLA 38–46 California | California home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Bob Chesney (First season as UCLA's head coach)
OC
- Dean Kennedy
career average +32.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 12th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.2 plays a game, 47th percentile)
DC
- Colin Hitschler
career average +16.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Tosh Lupoi (First season as California's head coach)
OC
- Ike Hilliard (co-OC)
- Jordan Somerville
no career track record on file
Scheme: Pro-style (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 60% of its run–pass plays, 99th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.8 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Da'Von Brown (co-DC)
- Michael Hutchings
career average +28.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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