2026 UAB vs 2026 East Carolina
Hypothetical
77% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 UAB Offense · SP+ 2026: 18.8, 17th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 East Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.5, 29th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UAB Defense · SP+ 2026: 31.6, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 East Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.8, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UAB Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 East Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 UAB Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 135.3 pts, 4th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 East Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.0 pts, 32nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 UAB Experience · returning production 2026: 80% returning, 91st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 East Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 14% returning, 15th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 UAB | 2026 East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0215th percentile | 0.0420th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0648th percentile | −0.0790th percentile |
| Points per game | 22.221st percentile6 games | 24.831st percentile5 games |
| per game | 25.832nd percentile6 games | 22.654th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 17th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 17th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 43rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
Campus distance
555 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 UAB OL vs 2026 East Carolina DL | 315.0 lbs | 263.3 lbs |
| 2026 East Carolina OL vs 2026 UAB DL | 294.4 lbs | 282.9 lbs |
2026 UAB line yards 3.13 · 2026 East Carolina stuff rate 29.9%
2026 East Carolina line yards 2.69 · 2026 UAB stuff rate 11.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · East Carolina leads 8–3 since 2000
East Carolina has won 7 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | UAB 14–63 East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · East Carolina home |
| 2012 | UAB 35–42 East Carolina | Legion Field · UAB home |
| 2011 | UAB 23–28 East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · East Carolina home |
| 2010 | UAB 42–54 East Carolina | Legion Field · UAB home |
| 2009 | UAB 21–37 East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · East Carolina home |
| 2008 | UAB 13–17 East Carolina | Legion Field · UAB home |
| 2007 | UAB 6–41 East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · East Carolina home |
| 2006 | UAB 17–12 East Carolina | Legion Field · UAB home |
| 2005 | UAB 23–31 East Carolina | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium · East Carolina home |
| 2002 | UAB 36–29 East Carolina | Legion Field · UAB home |
| 2000 | UAB 16–13 East Carolina | East Carolina home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Alex Mortensen
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 34% of its run–pass plays, 6th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 55th percentile)
DC
- Todd Grantham
career average +17.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Blake Harrell
OC
- Jordan Davis
career average +36.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 58th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.4 plays a game, 21st percentile)
DC
- Jordon Hankins
- Roy Tesh (co-DC)
career average +28.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
East Carolina at UAB · October 15, 2026
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