2026 Tulsa vs 2026 Rice
Hypothetical
63% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tulsa Offense · SP+ 2026: 22.9, 31st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rice Offense · SP+ 2026: 16.5, 10th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.1, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rice Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.8, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rice Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulsa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.4 pts, 33rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Rice Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 176.0 pts, 25th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tulsa Experience · returning production 2026: 41% returning, 53rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Rice Experience · returning production 2026: 39% returning, 50th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tulsa | 2026 Rice |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1446th percentile | −0.038th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0361st percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.542nd percentile6 games | 17.07th percentile6 games |
| per game | 23.352nd percentile6 games | 27.526th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 32nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 33rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 24th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 13th percentile
Campus distance
445 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tulsa OL vs 2026 Rice DL | 301.3 lbs | 265.6 lbs |
| 2026 Rice OL vs 2026 Tulsa DL | 307.7 lbs | 263.8 lbs |
2026 Tulsa line yards 3.20 · 2026 Rice stuff rate 19.1%
2026 Rice line yards 2.90 · 2026 Tulsa stuff rate 16.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Tulsa leads 10–5 since 2000
Rice has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Tulsa 10–42 Rice | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2013 | Tulsa 27–30 Rice | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2012 | Tulsa 28–24 Rice | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2011 | Tulsa 38–20 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2010 | Tulsa 64–27 Rice | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2009 | Tulsa 27–10 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2008 | Tulsa 63–28 Rice | Chapman Stadium · Tulsa home |
| 2007 | Tulsa 48–43 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2006 | Tulsa 38–41 Rice | Tulsa home |
| 2005 | Tulsa 41–21 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2004 | Tulsa 39–22 Rice | Tulsa home |
| 2003 | Tulsa 31–28 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2002 | Tulsa 18–33 Rice | Tulsa home |
| 2001 | Tulsa 32–59 Rice | Rice Stadium · Rice home |
| 2000 | Tulsa 23–16 Rice | Rice home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Tre Lamb
OC
- Kevin Barbay
- Ty Darlington (co-OC)
career average +25.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 68th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.5 plays a game, 51st percentile)
DC
- Josh Reardon
- Mike Gray (co-DC)
career average +33.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Scott Abell
OC
- Vince Munch
career average +17.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 23% of its run–pass plays, 2nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)
DC
- Jon Kay
career average +33.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Tulsa at Rice · October 17, 2026
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