2026 Tulane vs 2026 South Alabama
Hypothetical
64% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tulane Offense · SP+ 2026: 18.8, 17th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Alabama Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Defense · SP+ 2026: 26.7, 42nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Alabama Defense · SP+ 2026: 39.9, 1st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Alabama Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.4, 3rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tulane Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 195.1 pts, 54th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 South Alabama Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 187.2 pts, 45th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tulane Experience · returning production 2026: 21% returning, 27th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 South Alabama Experience · returning production 2026: 79% returning, 90th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tulane | 2026 South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0727th percentile | 0.2374th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1718th percentile | 0.273rd percentile |
| Points per game | 18.410th percentile5 games | 38.885th percentile6 games |
| per game | 22.654th percentile5 games | 34.57th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 50th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 26th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 32nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 19th percentile
Campus distance
135 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tulane OL vs 2026 South Alabama DL | 301.6 lbs | 282.1 lbs |
| 2026 South Alabama OL vs 2026 Tulane DL | 301.6 lbs | 275.4 lbs |
2026 Tulane line yards 2.63 · 2026 South Alabama stuff rate 18.5%
2026 South Alabama line yards 3.21 · 2026 Tulane stuff rate 14.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Tulane leads 4–1 since 2000
Tulane has won 4 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Tulane 28–24 South Alabama | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2025 | Tulane 33–31 South Alabama | Hancock Whitney Stadium · South Alabama home |
| 2023 | Tulane 37–17 South Alabama | Yulman Stadium · Tulane home |
| 2020 | Tulane 27–24 South Alabama | Hancock Whitney Stadium · South Alabama home |
| 2013 | Tulane 39–41 South Alabama | Caesars Superdome · Tulane home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Will Hall (First season as Tulane's head coach)
OC
- Russ Callaway
career average +28.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 44th percentile of 2026 FBS; 59.4 plays a game, 6th percentile)
DC
- Nate Fuqua (co-DC)
- Tayler Polk
career average +31.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
HC
- Major Applewhite
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 35% of its run–pass plays, 7th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC
- Jason Washington (co-DC)
- Todd Orlando
career average +26.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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