2026 Troy vs 2026 Louisiana
Hypothetical
55% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Troy Offense · SP+ 2026: 23.0, 32nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.5, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Troy Defense · SP+ 2026: 29.5, 29th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.7, 33rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Troy Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.1, 28th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisiana Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Troy Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 187.3 pts, 45th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Louisiana Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 179.8 pts, 34th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Troy Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Louisiana Experience · returning production 2026: 92% returning, 98th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Troy | 2026 Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1343rd percentile | 0.1550th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0747th percentile | −0.0480th percentile |
| Points per game | 28.045th percentile5 games | 29.550th percentile6 games |
| per game | 24.046th percentile5 games | 21.563rd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 37th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 28th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 30th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 40th percentile
Campus distance
375 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Troy OL vs 2026 Louisiana DL | 308.5 lbs | 272.3 lbs |
| 2026 Louisiana OL vs 2026 Troy DL | 312.7 lbs | 286.8 lbs |
2026 Troy line yards 3.02 · 2026 Louisiana stuff rate 23.4%
2026 Louisiana line yards 3.21 · 2026 Troy stuff rate 24.1%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Troy leads 11–8 since 2000
Troy has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Troy 35–23 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2024 | Troy 30–51 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2023 | Troy 31–24 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2022 | Troy 23–17 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2021 | Troy 21–35 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2019 | Troy 3–53 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2018 | Troy 26–16 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2015 | Troy 41–17 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2014 | Troy 23–42 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2013 | Troy 36–41 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2012 | Troy 24–37 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2011 | Troy 17–31 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2010 | Troy 31–24 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2009 | Troy 48–31 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2008 | Troy 48–3 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2007 | Troy 48–31 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2006 | Troy 42–28 Louisiana | Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) · Troy home |
| 2005 | Troy 28–31 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
| 2004 | Troy 13–10 Louisiana | Cajun Field · Louisiana home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Gerad Parker
OC
- Adam Austin
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.6 plays a game, 91st percentile)
DC
- Dontae Wright
- Nathan Burton (co-DC)
career average +29.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Michael Desormeaux
OC
- Tim Leger
career average +28.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 36% of its run–pass plays, 9th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.8 plays a game, 39th percentile)
DC
- Jim Salgado
career average +30.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Troy at Louisiana · October 17, 2026
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