2026 The Citadel vs 2026 Charlotte

Hypothetical

No prediction

At The CitadelNeutral FieldAt Charlotte

We don't rate 2026 teams yet

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 The Citadel Recruiting · 2026 signing class: not on file
2026 The Citadel: not an team that season
2026 The Citadel: fewer than three dimensions, so no shape is drawn

Offensive production relative to that season’s FBS field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 The Citadel	2026 Charlotte
Offensive / play	—not an FBS team that season	−0.113rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.247th percentile
Points per game	43.0not an FBS team that season1 game	16.05th percentile6 games
per game	41.0not an FBS team that season1 game	42.21st percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 The Citadel2026 Charlotte

Momentum

The CitadelNot enough history entering 2026

Charlotte↘ falling (−12 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 The Citadel

No SP+ result for 2026 yet, so there is nothing to weigh talent against.

2026 Charlotte

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 19th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 0th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−19)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for The Citadel.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 The Citadel OL vs 2026 Charlotte DL	—	260.5 lbs
2026 Charlotte OL vs 2026 The Citadel DL	302.8 lbs	—

2026 The Citadel line yards — · 2026 Charlotte stuff rate 19.9%

2026 Charlotte line yards 2.27 · 2026 The Citadel stuff rate —

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · The Citadel leads 1–0 since 2000

The Citadel has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	The Citadel 43–41 Charlotte	Jerry Richardson Stadium · Charlotte home

Coaching & program context

2026 The Citadel

HC: no staff data on file

OC: no staff data on file

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Charlotte

Tim Albin

Todd Fitch

career average +24.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 84th percentile of 2026 FBS; 56.7 plays a game, 1st percentile)

Nate Faanes

career average +31.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.