2026 Texas Tech vs 2026 Houston
Hypothetical
62% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Texas Tech Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.7, 91st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.6, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Defense · SP+ 2026: 15.4, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Houston Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Tech Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 250.3 pts, 88th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Houston Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 218.8 pts, 73rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas Tech Experience · returning production 2026: 53% returning, 61st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Houston Experience · returning production 2026: 81% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Texas Tech | 2026 Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1962nd percentile | 0.3697th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.869th percentile5 games | 40.090th percentile6 games |
| per game | 16.284th percentile5 games | 19.273rd percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 79th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 93rd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 62nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 86th percentile
Campus distance
465 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Texas Tech OL vs 2026 Houston DL | 304.5 lbs | 294.1 lbs |
| 2026 Houston OL vs 2026 Texas Tech DL | 306.2 lbs | 310.6 lbs |
2026 Texas Tech line yards 3.14 · 2026 Houston stuff rate 22.2%
2026 Houston line yards 3.70 · 2026 Texas Tech stuff rate 20.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Texas Tech leads 8–1 since 2000
Texas Tech has won 8 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Texas Tech 28–26 Houston | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2025 | Texas Tech 35–11 Houston | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2023 | Texas Tech 49–28 Houston | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2022 | Texas Tech 33–30 Houston | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2021 | Texas Tech 38–21 Houston | Neutral site |
| 2018 | Texas Tech 63–49 Houston | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2017 | Texas Tech 27–24 Houston | TDECU Stadium · Houston home |
| 2010 | Texas Tech 35–20 Houston | Jones AT&T Stadium · Texas Tech home |
| 2009 | Texas Tech 28–29 Houston | Robertson Stadium · Houston home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Joey McGuire
OC
- Mack Leftwich
career average +34.9 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.2 plays a game, 58th percentile)
DC
- Rob Greene (co-DC)
- Shiel Wood
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Willie Fritz
OC
- Slade Nagle
career average +29.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 41% of its run–pass plays, 23rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.2 plays a game, 84th percentile)
DC
- Austin Armstrong
career average +23.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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