2026 Texas A&M vs 2026 Missouri State

Hypothetical

Texas A&M by 33.8

99% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Texas A&MPreseason baseline +24.6In-season results −5.8

Missouri StatePreseason baseline −7.3In-season results −5.2

Texas A&M home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Texas A&M	2026 Missouri State
Offensive / play	0.0420th percentile	0.0727th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0070th percentile	0.254th percentile
Points per game	27.542nd percentile6 games	21.820th percentile5 games
per game	20.069th percentile6 games	32.412th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Texas A&M2026 Missouri State

Momentum

Texas A&M↘ falling (−25 pctl over 3 seasons)

Missouri State↘ falling (−15 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Texas A&M

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 91st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 66th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−24)

2026 Missouri State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2025–2026: 4th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 6th percentile

Matching its talent (+1)

Campus distance

490 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Texas A&M OL vs 2026 Missouri State DL	318.7 lbs	261.2 lbs
2026 Missouri State OL vs 2026 Texas A&M DL	303.7 lbs	275.7 lbs

2026 Texas A&M line yards 3.10 · 2026 Missouri State stuff rate 15.3%

2026 Missouri State line yards 2.92 · 2026 Texas A&M stuff rate 18.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Texas A&M leads 1–0 since 2000

Texas A&M has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Texas A&M 50–0 Missouri State	Kyle Field · Texas A&M home

Coaching & program context

2026 Texas A&M

Mike Elko

Holmon Wiggins

career average +36.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)

Elijah Robinson (co-DC)
Lyle Hemphill

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Missouri State

Casey Woods

Mark Cala
Nick Petrino

career average +22.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 49th percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.0 plays a game, 20th percentile)

Jack Curtis
L. D. Scott

career average +29.3 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.