2026 Texas A&M vs 2026 Arizona State
Hypothetical
81% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Texas A&M Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Offense · SP+ 2026: 27.0, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.4, 76th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.2, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arizona State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas A&M Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 283.1 pts, 93rd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Arizona State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 217.3 pts, 72nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas A&M Experience · returning production 2026: 73% returning, 87th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Arizona State Experience · returning production 2026: 16% returning, 22nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Texas A&M | 2026 Arizona State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0420th percentile | 0.0727th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0070th percentile | 0.0936th percentile |
| Points per game | 27.542nd percentile6 games | 32.661st percentile5 games |
| per game | 20.069th percentile6 games | 27.823rd percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 91st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 66th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 68th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 58th percentile
Campus distance
935 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Texas A&M OL vs 2026 Arizona State DL | 318.7 lbs | 279.4 lbs |
| 2026 Arizona State OL vs 2026 Texas A&M DL | 316.7 lbs | 275.7 lbs |
2026 Texas A&M line yards 3.10 · 2026 Arizona State stuff rate 15.0%
2026 Arizona State line yards 3.02 · 2026 Texas A&M stuff rate 18.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Texas A&M leads 2–0 since 2000
Texas A&M has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Texas A&M 48–20 Arizona State | Kyle Field · Texas A&M home |
| 2015 | Texas A&M 38–17 Arizona State | Neutral site |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Mike Elko
OC
- Holmon Wiggins
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.7 plays a game, 80th percentile)
DC
- Elijah Robinson (co-DC)
- Lyle Hemphill
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kenny Dillingham
OC
- Marcus Arroyo
career average +27.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 50% of its run–pass plays, 79th percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.4 plays a game, 50th percentile)
DC
- Brian Ward
career average +26.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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