2026 Tennessee vs 2026 Alabama
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Tennessee Offense · SP+ 2026: 34.9, 85th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Offense · SP+ 2026: 40.0, 97th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Defense · SP+ 2026: 18.5, 84th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 88th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Alabama Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Tennessee Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 290.7 pts, 95th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Alabama Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 303.8 pts, 99th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Tennessee Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Alabama Experience · returning production 2026: 26% returning, 33rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Tennessee | 2026 Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2064th percentile | 0.3395th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0891st percentile | −0.0685th percentile |
| Points per game | 34.768th percentile6 games | 44.299th percentile6 games |
| per game | 15.587th percentile6 games | 20.767th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 90th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 99th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 95th percentile
Campus distance
280 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Tennessee OL vs 2026 Alabama DL | 317.9 lbs | 292.1 lbs |
| 2026 Alabama OL vs 2026 Tennessee DL | 309.5 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
2026 Tennessee line yards 3.45 · 2026 Alabama stuff rate 25.0%
2026 Alabama line yards 3.23 · 2026 Tennessee stuff rate 19.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Alabama leads 19–7 since 2000
Alabama has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tennessee 20–37 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2024 | Tennessee 24–17 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2023 | Tennessee 20–34 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2022 | Tennessee 52–49 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2021 | Tennessee 24–52 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2020 | Tennessee 17–48 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2019 | Tennessee 13–35 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2018 | Tennessee 21–58 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2017 | Tennessee 7–45 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2016 | Tennessee 10–49 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2015 | Tennessee 14–19 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2014 | Tennessee 20–34 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2013 | Tennessee 10–45 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2012 | Tennessee 13–44 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2011 | Tennessee 6–37 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2010 | Tennessee 10–41 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2009 | Tennessee 10–12 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2008 | Tennessee 9–29 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2007 | Tennessee 17–41 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2006 | Tennessee 16–13 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2005 | Tennessee 3–6 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2004 | Tennessee 17–13 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2003 | Tennessee 51–43 Alabama | Bryant-Denny Stadium · Alabama home |
| 2002 | Tennessee 14–34 Alabama | Neyland Stadium · Tennessee home |
| 2001 | Tennessee 35–24 Alabama | Alabama home |
| 2000 | Tennessee 20–10 Alabama | Tennessee home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Josh Heupel
OC
- Joey Halzle
career average +36.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 10th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.7 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Anthony Poindexter (co-DC)
- Jim Knowles
career average +22.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kalen DeBoer
OC
- Ryan Grubb
career average +34.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and Gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 33rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.2 plays a game, 33rd percentile)
DC
- Kane Wommack
- Maurice Linguist (co-DC)
career average +21.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5, Swarm (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Alabama at Tennessee · October 17, 2026
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