2026 Syracuse vs 2026 Louisville
Hypothetical
88% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Syracuse Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.1, 38th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisville Offense · SP+ 2026: 38.0, 93rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Syracuse Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.6, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisville Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 56th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Syracuse Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Louisville Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Syracuse Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 224.8 pts, 75th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Louisville Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 211.7 pts, 66th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Syracuse Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 41st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Louisville Experience · returning production 2026: 35% returning, 40th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Syracuse | 2026 Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0932nd percentile | 0.3496th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0070th percentile | 0.1232nd percentile |
| Points per game | 32.862nd percentile5 games | 39.589th percentile6 games |
| per game | 24.046th percentile5 games | 27.724th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 63rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 48th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 63rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 82nd percentile
Campus distance
605 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Syracuse OL vs 2026 Louisville DL | 314.6 lbs | 276.5 lbs |
| 2026 Louisville OL vs 2026 Syracuse DL | 304.7 lbs | 282.6 lbs |
2026 Syracuse line yards 2.80 · 2026 Louisville stuff rate 11.6%
2026 Louisville line yards 2.97 · 2026 Syracuse stuff rate 22.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Louisville leads 13–5 since 2000
Syracuse has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Syracuse 31–7 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2021 | Syracuse 3–41 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2020 | Syracuse 0–30 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2019 | Syracuse 34–56 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2018 | Syracuse 54–23 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2017 | Syracuse 10–56 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2016 | Syracuse 28–62 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2015 | Syracuse 17–41 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2014 | Syracuse 6–28 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2012 | Syracuse 45–26 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2011 | Syracuse 10–27 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2010 | Syracuse 20–28 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2009 | Syracuse 9–10 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2008 | Syracuse 28–21 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2007 | Syracuse 38–35 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2006 | Syracuse 13–28 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
| 2005 | Syracuse 17–41 Louisville | L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium · Louisville home |
| 2003 | Syracuse 20–30 Louisville | JMA Wireless Dome · Syracuse home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Fran Brown
OC
- Jeff Nixon
- Mike Johnson (co-OC)
career average +28.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 55th percentile of 2026 FBS; 81.8 plays a game, 99th percentile)
DC
- John Scott Jr. (co-DC)
- Vince Kehres
career average +24.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Jeff Brohm
OC
- Brian Brohm
career average +33.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 27th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)
DC
- Mark Ivey (co-DC)
- Steve Ellis (co-DC)
career average +35.4 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Louisville at Syracuse · October 17, 2026
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