2026 Stanford vs 2026 Hawai'i

Hypothetical

Stanford by 2.8

58% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

StanfordIn-season results −7.8Preseason baseline +1.1

Hawai'iIn-season results −7.7Preseason baseline −1.8

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Stanford	2026 Hawai'i
Offensive / play	0.0318th percentile	0.0215th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.370th percentile	0.229th percentile
Points per game	15.73rd percentile6 games	16.77th percentile6 games
per game	41.51st percentile6 games	25.735th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Stanford2026 Hawai'i

Momentum

Stanford↘ falling (−13 pctl over 3 seasons)

Hawai'i→ steady (−4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Stanford

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 69th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 10th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−59)

2026 Hawai'i

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 11th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 16th percentile

Matching its talent (+5)

Campus distance

2400 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Stanford OL vs 2026 Hawai'i DL	303.9 lbs	267.6 lbs
2026 Hawai'i OL vs 2026 Stanford DL	300.0 lbs	277.5 lbs

2026 Stanford line yards 2.64 · 2026 Hawai'i stuff rate 14.1%

2026 Hawai'i line yards 3.19 · 2026 Stanford stuff rate 15.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Stanford leads 2–1 since 2000

Stanford has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Stanford 37–27 Hawai'i	Stanford Stadium · Stanford home
2025	Stanford 20–23 Hawai'i	Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Hawai'i home
2023	Stanford 37–24 Hawai'i	Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Hawai'i home

Coaching & program context

2026 Stanford

Tavita Pritchard (First season as Stanford's head coach)

Terry Heffernan

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 91st percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.3 plays a game, 28th percentile)

Kris Richard

no career track record on file

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Hawai'i

Timmy Chang

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 64% of its run–pass plays, 100th percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.0 plays a game, 88th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.