Saturday, October 17

Hawai'i

1–5

New Mexico

4–1

10:30 PM ET4:30 PM HSTClarence T.C. Ching Athletics ComplexHonolulu, HI

Weather

Isolated rain85°FNE 20 mphGusts 28 mphPrecip 17%

At kickoff · 4:30 PM HST · Updated 6:01 AM HST · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Honolulu · local time (HST)

Kickoff hour

Isolated rain85°FNE 20 mphGusts 28 mphPrecip 17%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

12%

Hawai'i win probability

New Mexico 88%

New Mexico by 16.0

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.8 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Hawai'i's case

No clear statistical strength for Hawai'i yet

In every matchup we can rate this season, the Hawai'i unit ranks well below the New Mexico unit it faces.

See when each team has the ball

02 · New Mexico's answer

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in

New Mexico's defense is in the 99th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Hawai'i's offense is in the 7th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

The National Weather Service forecast shows gusts to 28 mph at kickoff.

See the weather

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Hawai'i has the ball

Hawai'i offense: 15th
New Mexico defense: 99th

Show the underlying numbers

Hawai'i offensive per play: 0.0215th percentile · #115 nationally
New Mexico PPA allowed per play: −0.1899th percentile · #2 nationally
Hawai'i: 39%17th percentile · #115 nationally
New Mexico success rate allowed: 31%100th percentile · #1 nationally
Hawai'i points per game: 16.77th percentile · #129 nationally
New Mexico points allowed per game: 10.699th percentile · #3 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Hawai'i offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.13
Rush success: 44.1%

New Mexico defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.36
Rush success allowed: 30.7%

When New Mexico has the ball

New Mexico offense: 62nd
Hawai'i defense: 9th

Show the underlying numbers

New Mexico offensive PPA per play: 0.1962nd percentile · #51 nationally
Hawai'i PPA allowed per play: 0.229th percentile · #124 nationally
New Mexico success rate: 43%47th percentile · #74 nationally
Hawai'i success rate allowed: 46%9th percentile · #125 nationally
New Mexico points per game: 43.497th percentile · #5 nationally
Hawai'i points allowed per game: 25.735th percentile · #88 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

New Mexico offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.29
Rush success: 48.4%

Hawai'i defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.17
Rush success allowed: 47.5%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Micah Alejado · 79% of charted pass attempts

Throwing left

Share of charted plays: 46%
Usage: charted in this direction: 82 attempts
Yards / attempt: 5.4; over 81 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 54%; over 81 attempts with a result

180 of 181 have a direction · 1 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 5 of 6 games

Efficiency charted in 5 of 6 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 169 short · 11 deep · 1 not stated

What to watch

Most charted attempts go left (46%). Middle gives the most yards per attempt: 7.2 over 37 attempts with a result.

Who's driving the offense?

The Hawai'i offense in 2026

Micah Alejado

QB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

157/265 · 59% season

Passing yards: 1,613
Touchdowns: 5
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 10, 2026: 25/49, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

Devon Rice

RB · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Carries: 65
Rushing yards: 304
Touchdowns: 3

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 10, 2026: 6 carries, 28 yds, 0 TD

Kainoa Carvalho

WR · 6 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 29
Receiving yards: 335
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Arizona State · Oct 10, 2026: 7 rec, 86 yds, 0 TD

Hawai'i player tables

Who is producing

Hawai'i player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

Hawai'i — Passing production
Player
Micah AlejadoQB	6	157 / 265	1,613	6.1	5	4
Bjorn JurgensenQB	3	2 / 6	7	1.2	0	0
Tama UiliataWR	1	1 / 1	7	7.0	1	0

3 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

New Mexico player tables

Who is producing

New Mexico player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

New Mexico — Passing production
Player
Toa FaavaeQB	5	36 / 63	636	10.1	4	1
Luke MogaQB	4	23 / 38	248	6.5	3	0
James LaubsteinQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Hawai'i's line averages 300.0 lbs against New Mexico's 250.8 lbs front — an edge of 49.2 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Hawai'i OLHawai'i OL vs New Mexico DL	300.0 lbs	250.8 lbs
New Mexico OLNew Mexico OL vs Hawai'i DL	295.6 lbs	267.6 lbs

Hawai'i
New Mexico

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Hawai'i

Points per game: 16.7#129 nationally · 7th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 25.7#88 nationally · 35th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 65% of 2025 PPA returns · 75th percentile
Upperclassmen: 49% · 111 of 111 with a class year

New Mexico

Points per game: 43.4#5 nationally · 97th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 10.6#3 nationally · 99th percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 58% of 2025 PPA returns · 68th percentile
Upperclassmen: 55% · 115 of 115 with a class year

Recruiting

Hawai'i

2026 signing class · #124 nationally: 10th percentile · 161.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #123 nationally: 11th percentile · −1.02 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #115 nationally: 17th percentile · 556.8

New Mexico

2026 signing class · #87 nationally: 37th percentile · 182.6 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #135 nationally: 2nd percentile · −1.80 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #112 nationally: 19th percentile · 568.2

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Hawai'i: solid line, circles · New Mexico: dashed line, squares

Hawai'i

Offense · 2026: 17.6 · 16th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.8 · 22nd percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 161.5 pts · 10th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning · 75th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

New Mexico

Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.8 · 67th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 17.8 · 85th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3 · 80th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 182.6 pts · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning · 68th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Hawai'i's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 76 recorded plays
at Arizona State
L 12–30
39%
Success rate
−0.08
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 65 recorded plays
vs San José State
L 16–20
42%
Success rate
0.01
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 67 recorded plays
at Wyoming
L 10–27
42%
Success rate
0.07
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Hawai'i

Head coach: Timmy Chang
career −12.6 SP+ overall
Offensive coordinator: Not on file
Defensive coordinator: Not on file

New Mexico

Head coach: Jason Eck
career +0.9 SP+ overall
Photo: Todd R. Berenger, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Luke Schleusner
career +25.4 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Spence Nowinsky
career +26.9 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

New Mexico leads 4–3 since 2000

2024 · Hawai'i 38, New Mexico 30
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
2023 · New Mexico 42, Hawai'i 21
University Stadium (NM)
2020 · Hawai'i 39, New Mexico 33
Aloha Stadium
2019 · Hawai'i 45, New Mexico 31
University Stadium (NM)
2016 · New Mexico 28, Hawai'i 21
Aloha Stadium
2015 · New Mexico 28, Hawai'i 27
University Stadium (NM)
2012 · New Mexico 35, Hawai'i 23
Aloha Stadium

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Hawai'i: 6 games
New Mexico: 5 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

No clear statistical strength for Hawai'i yet

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

Wind is in the kickoff forecast

When each team has the ball

When Hawai'i has the ball

Hawai'i offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

New Mexico defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

When New Mexico has the ball

New Mexico offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Hawai'i defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing left

Who's driving the offense?

Micah Alejado

Devon Rice

Kainoa Carvalho

Hawai'i player production

New Mexico player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Recruiting

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Season percentile profiles

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Hawai'i's recent games

at Arizona State

vs San José State

at Wyoming

The coaching staff

Hawai'i

New Mexico

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

New Mexico's defense leads its matchup in