2026 Southern Miss vs 2026 Arkansas State
Hypothetical
64% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Southern Miss Offense · SP+ 2026: 21.2, 25th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Southern Miss Defense · SP+ 2026: 39.2, 2nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.2, 11th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Southern Miss Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Arkansas State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Southern Miss Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 175.3 pts, 22nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Arkansas State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 183.8 pts, 39th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Southern Miss Experience · returning production 2026: 90% returning, 96th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Arkansas State Experience · returning production 2026: 30% returning, 35th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Southern Miss | 2026 Arkansas State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0831st percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.2012th percentile | 0.2111th percentile |
| Points per game | 26.437th percentile5 games | 28.246th percentile6 games |
| per game | 34.66th percentile5 games | 28.819th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 32nd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 7th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 43rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 25th percentile
Campus distance
320 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Southern Miss OL vs 2026 Arkansas State DL | 309.2 lbs | 267.4 lbs |
| 2026 Arkansas State OL vs 2026 Southern Miss DL | 310.8 lbs | 285.8 lbs |
2026 Southern Miss line yards 3.55 · 2026 Arkansas State stuff rate 13.0%
2026 Arkansas State line yards 3.24 · 2026 Southern Miss stuff rate 15.3%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Southern Miss leads 5–2 since 2000
Southern Miss has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Southern Miss 27–21 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2024 | Southern Miss 28–44 Arkansas State | M. M. Roberts Stadium · Southern Miss home |
| 2023 | Southern Miss 37–44 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2022 | Southern Miss 20–19 Arkansas State | M. M. Roberts Stadium · Southern Miss home |
| 2008 | Southern Miss 27–24 Arkansas State | Centennial Bank Stadium · Arkansas State home |
| 2007 | Southern Miss 16–10 Arkansas State | M. M. Roberts Stadium · Southern Miss home |
| 2005bowl/playoff | Southern Miss 31–19 Arkansas State | Neutral site |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Blake Anderson
OC
- Kyle Cefalo
career average +29.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 83rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.6 plays a game, 74th percentile)
DC
- Joe Bolden
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Butch Jones
OC
- Garrett Altman
no career track record on file
Scheme: no scheme listed
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 75th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.2 plays a game, 8th percentile)
DC
- Griff McCarley
career average +33.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Arkansas State at Southern Miss · October 17, 2026
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