2026 South Florida vs 2026 Kent State

Hypothetical

South Florida by 15.8

87% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

South FloridaPreseason baseline +8.4In-season results −4.7

Kent StatePreseason baseline −8.9In-season results −5.7

Kent State home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 South Florida	2026 Kent State
Offensive / play	0.1857th percentile	−0.056th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0648th percentile	0.1815th percentile
Points per game	26.236th percentile6 games	13.71st percentile6 games
per game	17.382nd percentile6 games	32.511th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 South Florida2026 Kent State

Momentum

South Florida→ steady (+10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Kent State→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 South Florida

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 48th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 51st percentile

Matching its talent (+3)

2026 Kent State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 20th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 4th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−16)

Campus distance

910 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 South Florida OL vs 2026 Kent State DL	307.4 lbs	257.1 lbs
2026 Kent State OL vs 2026 South Florida DL	297.1 lbs	278.4 lbs

2026 South Florida line yards 2.95 · 2026 Kent State stuff rate 15.6%

2026 Kent State line yards 2.70 · 2026 South Florida stuff rate 22.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 South Florida

Brian Hartline (First season as South Florida's head coach)

Tim Beck

career average +31.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 60.3 plays a game, 9th percentile)

Josh Aldridge

career average +24.2 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Kent State

Mark Carney

Clay Patterson

career average +14.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 41st percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)

Cherokee Valeria

career average +34.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.