2026 San Diego State vs 2026 Fresno State
Hypothetical
79% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 San Diego State Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.5, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San Diego State Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.1, 27th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.9, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San Diego State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Fresno State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 San Diego State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 184.2 pts, 40th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Fresno State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.4 pts, 50th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 San Diego State Experience · returning production 2026: 99% returning, 99th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Fresno State Experience · returning production 2026: 38% returning, 47th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 San Diego State | 2026 Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | −0.121st percentile | 0.1446th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1522nd percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 22.825th percentile6 games | 28.347th percentile6 games |
| per game | 35.05th percentile6 games | 20.069th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 43rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 21st percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 37th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 58th percentile
Campus distance
315 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 San Diego State OL vs 2026 Fresno State DL | 317.6 lbs | 268.9 lbs |
| 2026 Fresno State OL vs 2026 San Diego State DL | 305.0 lbs | 268.2 lbs |
2026 San Diego State line yards 2.90 · 2026 Fresno State stuff rate 17.8%
2026 Fresno State line yards 2.58 · 2026 San Diego State stuff rate 11.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Fresno State leads 8–6 since 2000
San Diego State has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | San Diego State 23–0 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2023 | San Diego State 33–18 Fresno State | Snapdragon Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2022 | San Diego State 28–32 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2021 | San Diego State 20–30 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2019 | San Diego State 17–7 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2018 | San Diego State 14–23 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2017 | San Diego State 3–27 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2016 | San Diego State 17–3 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2015 | San Diego State 21–7 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2014 | San Diego State 13–24 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2013 | San Diego State 28–35 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2012 | San Diego State 40–52 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
| 2011 | San Diego State 35–28 Fresno State | Qualcomm Stadium · San Diego State home |
| 2002 | San Diego State 14–16 Fresno State | Valley Children's Stadium · Fresno State home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Sean Lewis
OC
- Matt Johnson
career average +8.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 35th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.5 plays a game, 11th percentile)
DC
- Demetrius Sumler
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Matt Entz
OC
- Josh Davis
career average +23.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pistol (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 67th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.3 plays a game, 10th percentile)
DC
- Adam Breske (co-DC)
- Nick Benedetto
career average +27.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Fresno State at San Diego State · October 17, 2026
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