2026 Sam Houston vs 2026 Western Kentucky
Hypothetical
64% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Sam Houston Offense · SP+ 2026: 17.1, 13th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Offense · SP+ 2026: 20.3, 23rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Sam Houston Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.3, 14th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Defense · SP+ 2026: 33.6, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Sam Houston Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.3, 12th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Sam Houston Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 161.2 pts, 9th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 185.2 pts, 42nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Sam Houston Experience · returning production 2026: 58% returning, 67th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Western Kentucky Experience · returning production 2026: 84% returning, 93rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Sam Houston | 2026 Western Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0522nd percentile | 0.0318th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.1328th percentile | 0.1914th percentile |
| Points per game | 22.824th percentile5 games | 22.221st percentile6 games |
| per game | 26.231st percentile5 games | 35.24th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 14th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 9th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 23rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 15th percentile
Campus distance
675 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Sam Houston OL vs 2026 Western Kentucky DL | 307.9 lbs | 276.4 lbs |
| 2026 Western Kentucky OL vs 2026 Sam Houston DL | 311.2 lbs | 271.7 lbs |
2026 Sam Houston line yards 2.70 · 2026 Western Kentucky stuff rate 15.6%
2026 Western Kentucky line yards 2.77 · 2026 Sam Houston stuff rate 19.2%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Western Kentucky leads 3–0 since 2000
Western Kentucky has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Sam Houston 24–41 Western Kentucky | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Western Kentucky home |
| 2024 | Sam Houston 14–31 Western Kentucky | Elliott T. Bowers Stadium · Sam Houston home |
| 2023 | Sam Houston 23–28 Western Kentucky | Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Western Kentucky home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Phil Longo
OC
- Zack Patterson
career average +15.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 67.8 plays a game, 53rd percentile)
DC
- Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay
career average +41.8 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Tyson Helton
OC
- Bodie Reeder
- Joe Bernardi (co-OC)
career average +19.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 80th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.8 plays a game, 85th percentile)
DC
- Davis Merritt
career average +28.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Western Kentucky at Sam Houston · October 14, 2026
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