2026 Rutgers vs 2026 Maryland
Hypothetical
51% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Rutgers Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.2, 61st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.2, 43rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Defense · SP+ 2026: 34.7, 9th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Defense · SP+ 2026: 28.2, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Maryland Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Rutgers Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 220.7 pts, 74th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Maryland Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 215.9 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Rutgers Experience · returning production 2026: 44% returning, 56th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Maryland Experience · returning production 2026: 54% returning, 62nd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Rutgers | 2026 Maryland |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1138th percentile | 0.0318th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.238th percentile | 0.0842nd percentile |
| Points per game | 30.053rd percentile5 games | 28.045th percentile6 games |
| per game | 32.212th percentile5 games | 32.79th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 71st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 32nd percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 74th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 42nd percentile
Campus distance
170 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Rutgers OL vs 2026 Maryland DL | 311.0 lbs | 289.2 lbs |
| 2026 Maryland OL vs 2026 Rutgers DL | 311.2 lbs | 272.1 lbs |
2026 Rutgers line yards 2.89 · 2026 Maryland stuff rate 18.5%
2026 Maryland line yards 2.86 · 2026 Rutgers stuff rate 18.4%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Maryland leads 8–6 since 2000
Rutgers has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rutgers 35–20 Maryland | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2024 | Rutgers 31–17 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2023 | Rutgers 24–42 Maryland | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2022 | Rutgers 0–37 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2021 | Rutgers 16–40 Maryland | SHI Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2020 | Rutgers 27–24 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2019 | Rutgers 7–48 Maryland | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2018 | Rutgers 7–34 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2017 | Rutgers 31–24 Maryland | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2016 | Rutgers 13–31 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2015 | Rutgers 41–46 Maryland | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
| 2014 | Rutgers 41–38 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2009 | Rutgers 34–13 Maryland | SECU Stadium · Maryland home |
| 2007 | Rutgers 24–34 Maryland | High Point Solutions Stadium · Rutgers home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Greg Schiano
OC
- Kirk Ciarrocca
career average +28.8 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 43rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)
DC
- Travis Johansen
no career track record on file
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Mike Locksley
OC
- Clint Trickett
career average +22.4 SP+ offense
Scheme: Run and gun (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 97th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.0 plays a game, 69th percentile)
DC
- Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (co-DC)
- Ted Monachino
career average +26.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Rutgers at Maryland · October 17, 2026
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