2026 Purdue vs 2026 Minnesota
Hypothetical
61% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Purdue Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.3, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Defense · SP+ 2026: 30.1, 27th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1, 70th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Purdue Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 203.3 pts, 61st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Minnesota Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.7 pts, 80th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Purdue Experience · returning production 2026: 48% returning, 59th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Minnesota Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning, 76th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Purdue | 2026 Minnesota |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2580th percentile | 0.0522nd percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.254th percentile | 0.0458th percentile |
| Points per game | 32.261st percentile6 games | 28.849th percentile6 games |
| per game | 31.314th percentile6 games | 21.860th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 54th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 55th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 71st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 57th percentile
Campus distance
450 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Purdue OL vs 2026 Minnesota DL | 307.5 lbs | 273.8 lbs |
| 2026 Minnesota OL vs 2026 Purdue DL | 310.9 lbs | 279.3 lbs |
2026 Purdue line yards 2.99 · 2026 Minnesota stuff rate 20.8%
2026 Minnesota line yards 2.34 · 2026 Purdue stuff rate 14.6%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Minnesota leads 12–11 since 2000
Purdue has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Purdue 41–13 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2025 | Purdue 20–27 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2023 | Purdue 49–30 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2022 | Purdue 20–10 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2021 | Purdue 13–20 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2020 | Purdue 31–34 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2019 | Purdue 31–38 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2018 | Purdue 10–41 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2017 | Purdue 31–17 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2016 | Purdue 31–44 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2015 | Purdue 13–41 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2014 | Purdue 38–39 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2012 | Purdue 28–44 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2011 | Purdue 45–17 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2010 | Purdue 28–17 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2009 | Purdue 20–35 Minnesota | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2008 | Purdue 6–17 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2007 | Purdue 45–31 Minnesota | Minnesota home |
| 2006 | Purdue 27–21 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2005 | Purdue 35–42 Minnesota | Minnesota home |
| 2002 | Purdue 28–15 Minnesota | Ross-Ade Stadium · Purdue home |
| 2001 | Purdue 35–28 Minnesota | Minnesota home |
| 2000 | Purdue 38–24 Minnesota | Purdue home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Barry Odom
OC
- Josh Henson
career average +34.2 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 57th percentile of 2026 FBS; 70.3 plays a game, 71st percentile)
DC
- Kevin Kane
career average +28.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- P.J. Fleck
OC
- Greg Harbaugh Jr.
career average +23.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)
DC
- Danny Collins
- Nick Monroe (co-DC)
career average +19.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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