2026 Pittsburgh vs 2026 Boston College
Hypothetical
84% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Pittsburgh Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.7, 66th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boston College Offense · SP+ 2026: 19.5, 19th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Defense · SP+ 2026: 19.4, 82nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boston College Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.4, 59th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Boston College Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 214.1 pts, 69th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Boston College Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 204.1 pts, 62nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Pittsburgh Experience · returning production 2026: 40% returning, 51st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Boston College Experience · returning production 2026: 16% returning, 23rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Pittsburgh | 2026 Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.1857th percentile | 0.0011th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.0685th percentile | 0.0262nd percentile |
| Points per game | 34.872nd percentile6 games | 19.013th percentile5 games |
| per game | 14.790th percentile6 games | 23.450th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 66th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 51st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 34th percentile
Campus distance
475 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Pittsburgh OL vs 2026 Boston College DL | 310.3 lbs | 265.9 lbs |
| 2026 Boston College OL vs 2026 Pittsburgh DL | 308.7 lbs | 267.1 lbs |
2026 Pittsburgh line yards 3.16 · 2026 Boston College stuff rate 22.7%
2026 Boston College line yards 2.74 · 2026 Pittsburgh stuff rate 30.5%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Pittsburgh leads 7–4 since 2000
Pittsburgh has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Pittsburgh 48–7 Boston College | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2024 | Pittsburgh 23–34 Boston College | Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Boston College home |
| 2023 | Pittsburgh 24–16 Boston College | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2020 | Pittsburgh 30–31 Boston College | Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Boston College home |
| 2019 | Pittsburgh 19–26 Boston College | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2014 | Pittsburgh 30–20 Boston College | Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Boston College home |
| 2004 | Pittsburgh 20–17 Boston College | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2003 | Pittsburgh 24–13 Boston College | Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Boston College home |
| 2002 | Pittsburgh 19–16 Boston College | Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh home |
| 2001 | Pittsburgh 7–45 Boston College | Boston College home |
| 2000 | Pittsburgh 42–26 Boston College | Pittsburgh home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Pat Narduzzi
OC
- Kade Bell
career average +30.5 SP+ offense
Scheme: Hurry-up, no-huddle spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 51% of its run–pass plays, 82nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.3 plays a game, 89th percentile)
DC
- Cory Sanders
no career track record on file
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Bill O'Brien
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 36th percentile of 2026 FBS; 65.4 plays a game, 37th percentile)
DC
- Ted Roof
career average +26.3 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Pittsburgh at Boston College · October 17, 2026
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