2026 Ole Miss vs 2026 Louisville

Hypothetical

Ole Miss by 2.1

56% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Ole MissPreseason baseline +18.0In-season results +0.4

LouisvillePreseason baseline +10.4In-season results +3.3

Louisville home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Ole Miss	2026 Louisville
Offensive / play	0.2782nd percentile	0.3496th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1522nd percentile	0.1232nd percentile
Points per game	38.885th percentile5 games	39.589th percentile6 games
per game	28.020th percentile5 games	27.724th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Ole Miss2026 Louisville

Momentum

Ole Miss↘ falling (−10 pctl over 3 seasons)

Louisville→ steady (−2 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Ole Miss

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 85th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 89th percentile

Matching its talent (+4)

2026 Louisville

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 63rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 82nd percentile

Outperforming its talent (+20)

Campus distance

340 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Ole Miss OL vs 2026 Louisville DL	310.0 lbs	276.5 lbs
2026 Louisville OL vs 2026 Ole Miss DL	304.7 lbs	284.1 lbs

2026 Ole Miss line yards 3.06 · 2026 Louisville stuff rate 11.6%

2026 Louisville line yards 2.97 · 2026 Ole Miss stuff rate 22.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Ole Miss leads 2–0 since 2000

Ole Miss has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Ole Miss 41–38 Louisville	Neutral site
2021	Ole Miss 43–24 Louisville	Neutral site

Coaching & program context

2026 Ole Miss

Pete Golding

Cody Woodiel (co-OC)
John David Baker

career average +34.0 SP+ offense

Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 55% of its run–pass plays, 94th percentile of 2026 FBS; 68.4 plays a game, 58th percentile)

Bryan Brown
Marcus Woodson (co-DC)

career average +24.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Louisville

Jeff Brohm

Brian Brohm

career average +33.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 27th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.2 plays a game, 26th percentile)

Mark Ivey (co-DC)
Steve Ellis (co-DC)

career average +35.4 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.