2026 Oklahoma vs 2026 Texas
Hypothetical
63% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Oklahoma Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.6, 39th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Offense · SP+ 2026: 36.4, 89th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma Defense · SP+ 2026: 13.6, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Defense · SP+ 2026: 12.2, 99th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.2, 69th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Texas Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Oklahoma Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 252.6 pts, 90th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Texas Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 291.2 pts, 96th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Oklahoma Experience · returning production 2026: 63% returning, 73rd percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Texas Experience · returning production 2026: 72% returning, 86th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Oklahoma | 2026 Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | −0.047th percentile | 0.0831st percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1699th percentile | −0.0582nd percentile |
| Points per game | 23.026th percentile5 games | 31.458th percentile5 games |
| per game | 17.680th percentile5 games | 16.085th percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 93rd percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 79th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 98th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 96th percentile
Campus distance
340 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 Texas DL | 318.6 lbs | 294.4 lbs |
| 2026 Texas OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL | 319.4 lbs | 277.9 lbs |
2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 Texas stuff rate 22.6%
2026 Texas line yards 2.89 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Oklahoma leads 18–10 since 2000
Oklahoma has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Oklahoma 27–24 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2025 | Oklahoma 6–23 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2024 | Oklahoma 3–34 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2023 | Oklahoma 34–30 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2022 | Oklahoma 0–49 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2021 | Oklahoma 55–48 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2020 | Oklahoma 53–45 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2019 | Oklahoma 34–27 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2018 | Oklahoma 39–27 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2018 | Oklahoma 45–48 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2017 | Oklahoma 29–24 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2016 | Oklahoma 45–40 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2015 | Oklahoma 17–24 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2014 | Oklahoma 31–26 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2013 | Oklahoma 20–36 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2012 | Oklahoma 63–21 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2011 | Oklahoma 55–17 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2010 | Oklahoma 28–20 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2009 | Oklahoma 13–16 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2008 | Oklahoma 35–45 Texas | Neutral site |
| 2007 | Oklahoma 28–21 Texas | Texas home |
| 2006 | Oklahoma 10–28 Texas | Oklahoma home |
| 2005 | Oklahoma 12–45 Texas | Texas home |
| 2004 | Oklahoma 12–0 Texas | Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home |
| 2003 | Oklahoma 65–13 Texas | Texas home |
| 2002 | Oklahoma 35–24 Texas | Oklahoma home |
| 2001 | Oklahoma 14–3 Texas | Texas home |
| 2000 | Oklahoma 63–14 Texas | Oklahoma home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Brent Venables
OC
- Ben Arbuckle
career average +31.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)
DC
- Todd Bates
career average +19.9 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Steve Sarkisian
OC
- A. J. Milwee (co-OC)
- Kyle Flood
career average +29.3 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro-style spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 42nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.0 plays a game, 76th percentile)
DC
- Will Muschamp
career average +10.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: no scheme listed
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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