2026 Oklahoma vs 2026 New Mexico

Hypothetical

Oklahoma by 13.5

83% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

OklahomaPreseason baseline +21.6In-season results −1.6

New MexicoIn-season results +12.0Preseason baseline −3.0

Oklahoma home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Oklahoma	2026 New Mexico
Offensive / play	−0.047th percentile	0.1962nd percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1699th percentile	−0.1899th percentile
Points per game	23.026th percentile5 games	43.497th percentile5 games
per game	17.680th percentile5 games	10.699th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Oklahoma2026 New Mexico

Momentum

Oklahoma→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

New Mexico↗ rising (+66 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Oklahoma

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 79th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

2026 New Mexico

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 10th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 80th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+69)

Campus distance

520 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 New Mexico DL	318.6 lbs	250.8 lbs
2026 New Mexico OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL	295.6 lbs	277.9 lbs

2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 New Mexico stuff rate 24.7%

2026 New Mexico line yards 3.27 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Oklahoma leads 1–0 since 2000

Oklahoma has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Oklahoma 14–6 New Mexico	Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) · Oklahoma home

Coaching & program context

2026 Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Ben Arbuckle

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Todd Bates

career average +19.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 New Mexico

Jason Eck

Luke Schleusner

career average +25.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 31% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)

Spence Nowinsky

career average +26.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.