2026 Oklahoma vs 2026 Kentucky

Published

Oklahoma by 8.5

72% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

OklahomaPreseason baseline +21.6In-season results −1.6

KentuckyIn-season results +7.5Preseason baseline +6.5

Oklahoma home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Oklahoma	2026 Kentucky
Offensive / play	−0.047th percentile	0.2169th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1699th percentile	0.0458th percentile
Points per game	23.026th percentile5 games	34.768th percentile6 games
per game	17.680th percentile5 games	28.020th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Oklahoma2026 Kentucky

Momentum

Oklahoma→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Kentucky→ steady (+1 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Oklahoma

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 93rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 79th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

2026 Kentucky

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 74th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 66th percentile

Matching its talent (−7)

Campus distance

745 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Oklahoma OL vs 2026 Kentucky DL	318.6 lbs	285.8 lbs
2026 Kentucky OL vs 2026 Oklahoma DL	320.2 lbs	277.9 lbs

2026 Oklahoma line yards 2.43 · 2026 Kentucky stuff rate 18.7%

2026 Kentucky line yards 3.27 · 2026 Oklahoma stuff rate 18.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 Oklahoma

Brent Venables

Ben Arbuckle

career average +31.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread / air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 45% of its run–pass plays, 45th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.8 plays a game, 18th percentile)

Todd Bates

career average +19.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Kentucky

Will Stein (First season as Kentucky's head coach)

Joe Sloan

career average +36.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 48th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.7 plays a game, 45th percentile)

Jay Bateman

career average +30.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.