2026 Ohio State vs 2026 Iowa
Hypothetical
79% to win
High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Ohio State Offense · SP+ 2026: 41.3, 100th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Defense · SP+ 2026: 11.7, 100th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.7, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Special teams · SP+ 2026: −0.2, 20th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Ohio State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 301.2 pts, 98th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Iowa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 228.6 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Ohio State Experience · returning production 2026: 68% returning, 81st percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Iowa Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Ohio State | 2026 Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.3190th percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | −0.1093rd percentile | −0.0274th percentile |
| Points per game | 42.796th percentile6 games | 31.055th percentile6 games |
| per game | 13.295th percentile6 games | 14.591st percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 97th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 100th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 75th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 82nd percentile
Campus distance
460 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Ohio State OL vs 2026 Iowa DL | 309.2 lbs | 275.0 lbs |
| 2026 Iowa OL vs 2026 Ohio State DL | 302.4 lbs | 280.2 lbs |
2026 Ohio State line yards 3.15 · 2026 Iowa stuff rate 19.2%
2026 Iowa line yards 3.44 · 2026 Ohio State stuff rate 19.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Ohio State leads 10–2 since 2000
Ohio State has won 3 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Ohio State 31–14 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2024 | Ohio State 35–7 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2022 | Ohio State 54–10 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2017 | Ohio State 24–55 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2013 | Ohio State 34–24 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2010 | Ohio State 20–17 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2009 | Ohio State 27–24 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2006 | Ohio State 38–17 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2005 | Ohio State 31–6 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2004 | Ohio State 7–33 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2003 | Ohio State 19–10 Iowa | Ohio Stadium · Ohio State home |
| 2000 | Ohio State 38–10 Iowa | Iowa home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Ryan Day
OC
- Arthur Smith
- Keenan Bailey (co-OC)
career average +37.6 SP+ offense
Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, average pace (threw on 44% of its run–pass plays, 38th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.2 plays a game, 66th percentile)
DC
- Matt Patricia
- Tim Walton (co-DC)
career average +7.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Kirk Ferentz
OC
- Tim Lester
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: West Coast (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Phil Parker
career average +15.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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