2026 Notre Dame vs 2026 Rice

Hypothetical

Notre Dame by 41.5

100% to win

High confidence — 6 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

Notre DamePreseason baseline +29.4In-season results +4.7

RicePreseason baseline −9.9In-season results 0.0

Rice home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Notre Dame	2026 Rice
Offensive / play	0.3798th percentile	−0.038th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0993rd percentile	0.0936th percentile
Points per game	44.098th percentile6 games	17.07th percentile6 games
per game	11.098th percentile6 games	27.526th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Notre Dame2026 Rice

Momentum

Notre Dame→ steady (+4 pctl over 3 seasons)

Rice→ steady (−6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Notre Dame

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 94th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 99th percentile

Matching its talent (+5)

2026 Rice

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 24th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 13th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−11)

Campus distance

975 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Notre Dame OL vs 2026 Rice DL	308.1 lbs	265.6 lbs
2026 Rice OL vs 2026 Notre Dame DL	307.7 lbs	280.2 lbs

2026 Notre Dame line yards 3.28 · 2026 Rice stuff rate 19.1%

2026 Rice line yards 2.90 · 2026 Notre Dame stuff rate 23.2%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Notre Dame leads 2–0 since 2000

Notre Dame has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Notre Dame 52–0 Rice	Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home
2014	Notre Dame 48–17 Rice	Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame home

Coaching & program context

2026 Notre Dame

Marcus Freeman

Mike Denbrock

career average +34.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 26th percentile of 2026 FBS; 69.0 plays a game, 66th percentile)

Aaron Henry (co-DC)
Chris Ash

career average +20.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Rice

Scott Abell

Vince Munch

career average +17.7 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread option (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 23% of its run–pass plays, 2nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 63.8 plays a game, 23rd percentile)

Jon Kay

career average +33.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.