2026 Northern Illinois vs 2026 Wyoming

Published

Wyoming by 5.0

63% to win

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r

View scouting report

Why this number

Northern IllinoisIn-season results −6.8Preseason baseline −5.3

WyomingPreseason baseline −5.3In-season results −4.3

Wyoming home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Northern Illinois	2026 Wyoming
Offensive / play	−0.121st percentile	0.0727th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.2012th percentile	0.1426th percentile
Points per game	12.40th percentile5 games	14.51st percentile6 games
per game	34.66th percentile5 games	20.569th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Northern Illinois2026 Wyoming

Momentum

Northern Illinois↘ falling (−34 pctl over 3 seasons)

Wyoming→ steady (−3 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Northern Illinois

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 32nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 4th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−29)

2026 Wyoming

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 24th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 12th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−12)

Campus distance

865 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Northern Illinois OL vs 2026 Wyoming DL	299.6 lbs	271.7 lbs
2026 Wyoming OL vs 2026 Northern Illinois DL	304.8 lbs	270.1 lbs

2026 Northern Illinois line yards 2.78 · 2026 Wyoming stuff rate 15.6%

2026 Wyoming line yards 3.51 · 2026 Northern Illinois stuff rate 14.4%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Wyoming leads 2–0 since 2000

Wyoming has won 2 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2021	Northern Illinois 43–50 Wyoming	Huskie Stadium · Northern Illinois home
2016	Northern Illinois 34–40 Wyoming	War Memorial Stadium · Wyoming home

Coaching & program context

2026 Northern Illinois

Rob Harley (First season as Northern Illinois's head coach)

Quinn Sanders
Tony Petersen (co-OC)

career average +25.8 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 52% of its run–pass plays, 88th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.0 plays a game, 14th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Wyoming

Jay Sawvel

Christian Taylor

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 38% of its run–pass plays, 15th percentile of 2026 FBS; 61.8 plays a game, 12th percentile)

Aaron Bohl

career average +27.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.