2026 North Dakota State vs 2026 Air Force

Hypothetical

North Dakota State by 6.4

65% to win

Medium confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

North Dakota StateIn-season results +6.0Preseason baseline −2.1

Air ForcePreseason baseline −7.2In-season results +4.7

Neutral site

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 North Dakota State Experience · returning production 2026: not on file

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 North Dakota State	2026 Air Force
Offensive / play	0.1239th percentile	0.2271st percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1598th percentile	−0.0274th percentile
Points per game	29.250th percentile6 games	28.848th percentile5 games
per game	10.399th percentile6 games	17.481st percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 North Dakota State2026 Air Force

Momentum

North Dakota StateNot enough history entering 2026

Air Force↗ rising (+37 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 North Dakota State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 6th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 69th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+64)

2026 Air Force

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 8th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 55th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+47)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for North Dakota State.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 North Dakota State OL vs 2026 Air Force DL	300.1 lbs	253.3 lbs
2026 Air Force OL vs 2026 North Dakota State DL	293.3 lbs	268.0 lbs

2026 North Dakota State line yards 3.00 · 2026 Air Force stuff rate 19.4%

2026 Air Force line yards 3.70 · 2026 North Dakota State stuff rate 18.9%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · North Dakota State leads 1–0 since 2000

North Dakota State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	North Dakota State 38–32 Air Force	Falcon Stadium · Air Force home

Coaching & program context

2026 North Dakota State

Tim Polasek

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 12th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.8 plays a game, 30th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Air Force

Troy Calhoun

Mike Thiessen

career average +27.5 SP+ offense

Scheme: Triple option (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 13% of its run–pass plays, 0th percentile of 2026 FBS; 75.2 plays a game, 93rd percentile)

Steve Russ

career average +35.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.