Saturday, October 17

Air Force

4–1

UNLV

4–2

3:30 PM ET1:30 PM MTFalcon StadiumColorado Springs, CO

Weather

Clear66°FS 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%

At kickoff · 1:30 PM MT · Updated 9:02 AM MT · National Weather Service

Hour by hour

Colorado Springs · local time (MT)

Kickoff hour

Clear66°FS 6 mphGusts 15 mphPrecip 0%

Weather is not an input to the SBR forecast.

Game forecast

47%

Air Force win probability

UNLV 53%

UNLV by 1.1

Projected margin

Margin uncertainty ±13.9 points

Published forecast · SBR sbr-2r · Model track record

The game in a minute

01 · Air Force's case

Air Force's defense leads its matchup in allowed

Air Force's defense is in the 80th percentile for success rate allowed this season. UNLV's offense is in the 8th percentile for success rate.

See the underlying numbers

02 · UNLV's answer

UNLV's defense leads its matchup in

UNLV's defense is in the 66th percentile for points allowed per game this season. Air Force's offense is in the 48th percentile for points per game.

See the underlying numbers

03 · What could swing it

The forecast comes with a range

The model gives Air Force a 47% chance to win and predicts UNLV by 1.1 points. That margin has an uncertainty of ±13.9 points.

See the forecast

When each team has the ball

Offensive efficiency meets defensive efficiency. Percentiles run from 0 to 100.

When Air Force has the ball

Air Force offense: 71st
UNLV defense: 62nd

Show the underlying numbers

Air Force offensive per play: 0.2271st percentile · #38 nationally
UNLV PPA allowed per play: 0.0262nd percentile · #49 nationally
Air Force success rate: 49%82nd percentile · #25 nationally
UNLV success rate allowed: 38%64th percentile · #50 nationally
Air Force points per game: 28.848th percentile · #72 nationally
UNLV points allowed per game: 20.866th percentile · #47 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 teams.

Air Force offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.04
Rush success: 50.5%

UNLV defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.25
Rush success allowed: 46.2%

When UNLV has the ball

UNLV offense: 25th
Air Force defense: 74th

Show the underlying numbers

UNLV offensive PPA per play: 0.0625th percentile · #102 nationally
Air Force PPA allowed per play: −0.0274th percentile · #33 nationally
UNLV success rate: 37%8th percentile · #127 nationally
Air Force success rate allowed: 35%80th percentile · #29 nationally
UNLV points per game: 23.026th percentile · #101 nationally
Air Force points allowed per game: 17.481st percentile · #27 nationally

PPA and success rate: CFBD, 2026 season to date, garbage time included. Points per game: 2026 games so far. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

UNLV offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness: 1.26
Rush success: 36.7%

Air Force defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Explosiveness allowed: 1.31
Rush success allowed: 40.7%

Defense is oriented so a higher percentile is stronger.

Where they attack.

Follow the direction. Check the production.

Share of charted attemptsDirectional schematic

Offense moving upfield ↑

Select left, middle or right. The paths show direction only; alignment, routes and throw depth are schematic.

Liam Szarka · 77% of charted pass attempts

Throwing over the middle

Share of charted plays: 40%
Usage: charted in this direction: 10 attempts
Yards / attempt: 8.1; over 10 attempts with a result
Completion rate: 30%; over 10 attempts with a result

25 of 27 have a direction · 2 unknown, excluded · rounded

Charted 4 of 5 games

Efficiency charted in 4 of 5 games

Depth as written in the play-by-play: 17 short · 8 deep · 2 not stated

Who's driving the offense?

The Air Force offense in 2026

Liam Szarka

QB · 4 games

19/38 · 50% season

Passing yards: 296
Touchdown: 1
Interceptions: 4

Last game

Navy · Oct 3, 2026: 6/11, 82 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

Liam Szarka

QB · 4 games

Carries: 92
Rushing yards: 391
Touchdowns: 7

Last game

Navy · Oct 3, 2026: 25 carries, 81 yds, 2 TD

Simon Kibbee

TE · 3 games

Photo: ESPN

Receptions: 6
Receiving yards: 103
Touchdowns: 0

Last game

Navy · Oct 3, 2026: 2 rec, 23 yds, 0 TD

Air Force player tables

Who is producing

Air Force player production

2026 evidence · 5 games in this window · 5 with recorded rows in this view

Air Force — Passing production
Player
Liam SzarkaQB	4	19 / 38	296	7.8	1	4
Evan MeddersQB	3	3 / 7	47	6.7	1	0
Kemper HodgesQB	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	0
Mason HayesWR	1	1 / 1	29	29.0	1	0

4 players with recorded rows

Rows are recorded player-game box lines for the games listed above. A missing row is missing data, not proof that a player did not appear, and none of these figures describe targets, snaps, starters or availability.

UNLV player tables

Who is producing

UNLV player production

2026 evidence · 6 games in this window · 6 with recorded rows in this view

UNLV — Passing production
Player
Jackson ArnoldQB	6	87 / 149	1,145	7.7	8	1
Alex OrjiQB	1	1 / 5	9	1.8	0	1
Matt ByrnesTE	1	0 / 1	0	0.0	0	1

3 players with recorded rows

In the trenches

Air Force's line averages 293.3 lbs against UNLV's 280.9 lbs front — an edge of 12.4 lbs a man.

Typical FBS gap: 31.7 lbs.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Matchup	O-line	D-line
Air Force OLAir Force OL vs UNLV DL	293.3 lbs	280.9 lbs
UNLV OLUNLV OL vs Air Force DL	312.1 lbs	253.3 lbs

Air Force
UNLV

Average listed roster weight, 2026 · bars run from 0 to 350 lbs.

How these teams stack up

2026 season. Percentiles and ranks are among 2026 FBS teams.

Air Force

Points per game: 28.8#72 nationally · 48th percentile · 5 games
Points allowed per game: 17.4#27 nationally · 81st percentile · 5 games
Returning production: 57% of 2025 PPA returns · 66th percentile
Upperclassmen: 62% · 148 of 148 with a class year

UNLV

Points per game: 23.0#101 nationally · 26th percentile · 6 games
Points allowed per game: 20.8#47 nationally · 66th percentile · 6 games
Returning production: 15% of 2025 PPA returns · 21st percentile
Upperclassmen: 39% · 108 of 108 with a class year

Recruiting

Air Force

2026 signing class · #136 nationally: 1st percentile · 116.5 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #136 nationally: 1st percentile · −1.94 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #137 nationally: 1st percentile · 272.4

UNLV

2026 signing class · #63 nationally: 55th percentile · 196.4 pts
4-year recruiting composite (Saturday Bias) · classes 2023–2026 · #83 nationally: 40th percentile · −0.41 (0 is the FBS average)
Roster talent (CFBD Team Talent) · 2026 · #56 nationally: 60th percentile · 696.0

Recruited classes aren't the roster that takes the field.

Season percentile profiles

Season percentiles · outward is stronger · recruiting and experience are context, not forecast weights

Air Force: solid line, circles · UNLV: dashed line, squares

Air Force

Offense · 2026: 26.6 · 51st percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.3 · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1 · 50th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 116.5 pts · 1st percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 57% returning · 66th percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

UNLV

Offense · SP+ 2026: 24.4 · 34th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.3 · 54th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0 · 37th percentile; CFBD, 2026 season to date
Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 196.4 pts · 55th percentile; CFBD, 2026 signing class
Experience · returning production 2026: 15% returning · 21st percentile; CFBD, 2026 roster

Air Force's recent games

Most recent completed 2026 games · play stats exclude garbage time

Oct 10 · 69 recorded plays
at Northern Illinois
W 28–7
65%
Success rate
0.37
PPA / play
Oct 3 · 74 recorded plays
vs Navy
W 14–9
34%
Success rate
−0.15
PPA / play
Sep 26 · 86 recorded plays
at Nevada
W 36–33
43%
Success rate
0.26
PPA / play

The coaching staff

Air Force

Head coach: Troy Calhoun
career −0.5 SP+ overall
Photo: U.S. Department of Defense Current Photos, Public domain
Offensive coordinator: Mike Thiessen
career +27.5 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Steve Russ
career +35.8 SP+ defense

UNLV

Head coach: Dan Mullen
career +13.1 SP+ overall
Photo: Nascar9919, CC BY 4.0
Offensive coordinator: Corey Dennis
career +33.8 SP+ offense
Defensive coordinator: Paul Guenther
career +29.8 SP+ defense

Head-to-head

Air Force leads 14–7 since 2000

2025 · UNLV 51, Air Force 48
Allegiant Stadium
2023 · UNLV 31, Air Force 27
Falcon Stadium
2022 · Air Force 42, UNLV 7
Allegiant Stadium
2021 · Air Force 48, UNLV 14
Falcon Stadium
2018 · Air Force 41, UNLV 35
Sam Boyd Stadium
2017 · Air Force 34, UNLV 30
Falcon Stadium
2014 · Air Force 48, UNLV 21
Sam Boyd Stadium
2013 · UNLV 41, Air Force 21
Falcon Stadium
2012 · UNLV 38, Air Force 35
Sam Boyd Stadium
2011 · Air Force 45, UNLV 17
Falcon Stadium
2010 · Air Force 35, UNLV 20
Sam Boyd Stadium
2009 · Air Force 45, UNLV 17
Falcon Stadium
2008 · Air Force 29, UNLV 28
Sam Boyd Stadium
2007 · Air Force 31, UNLV 14
Falcon Stadium
2006 · UNLV 42, Air Force 39
Sam Boyd Stadium
2005 · Air Force 42, UNLV 7
Falcon Stadium
2004 · Air Force 27, UNLV 10
Sam Boyd Stadium
2003 · Air Force 24, UNLV 7
Falcon Stadium
2002 · Air Force 49, UNLV 32
Sam Boyd Stadium
2001 · UNLV 34, Air Force 10
Falcon Stadium
2000 · UNLV 34, Air Force 13

Evidence and sources

Evidence window: 2026 season to date

Air Force: 5 games
UNLV: 6 games

Forecast: 2026 game forecast · this game · Saturday Bias
Weather: 2026 game forecast · this game · NWS
The game in a minute: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
When each team has the ball: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Where they attack: 2026 season to date, garbage time included, regular season only · per team, not ranked · NCAA
Featured players: 2026 season to date, garbage time included · per team, not ranked · CFBD
In the trenches: 2026 roster snapshot · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Team profiles: 2026 season to date · compared with 2026 FBS teams · CFBD
Recent games: 2026 recent games, garbage time excluded · this game · CFBD
Coaching staff: 2026 coaching staff · per team, not ranked · CFBD (head coaches, SP+) and Wikipedia (coordinators)
Head-to-head: completed meetings since 2000 · games between these two programs · CFBD

Compare these teams

Game forecast

The game in a minute

Air Force's defense leads its matchup in success rate allowed

UNLV's defense leads its matchup in points allowed

The forecast comes with a range

When each team has the ball

When Air Force has the ball

Air Force offense · Last 5 games · garbage time excluded

UNLV defense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

When UNLV has the ball

UNLV offense · Last 6 games · garbage time excluded

Air Force defense · 4 of the last 5 games · garbage time excluded

Where they attack.

Throwing over the middle

Who's driving the offense?

Liam Szarka

Liam Szarka

Simon Kibbee

Air Force player production

UNLV player production

In the trenches

How these teams stack up

Air Force

UNLV

Recruiting

Air Force

UNLV

Season percentile profiles

Air Force

UNLV

Air Force's recent games

at Northern Illinois

vs Navy

at Nevada

The coaching staff

Air Force

UNLV

Head-to-head

Evidence and sources

Air Force's defense leads its matchup in allowed

UNLV's defense leads its matchup in