2026 North Carolina vs 2026 Duke
Hypothetical
55% to win
High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 North Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 26.4, 47th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Offense · SP+ 2026: 31.5, 71st percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 21.5, 74th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Defense · SP+ 2026: 23.4, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Duke Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.1, 50th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 North Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 247.7 pts, 87th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Duke Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 189.3 pts, 49th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 North Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 28% returning, 34th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Duke Experience · returning production 2026: 17% returning, 24th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 North Carolina | 2026 Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0932nd percentile | 0.2985th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0166th percentile | 0.0166th percentile |
| Points per game | 23.428th percentile5 games | 34.066th percentile5 games |
| per game | 19.074th percentile5 games | 14.491st percentile5 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 79th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 60th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 60th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 68th percentile
Campus distance
10 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 North Carolina OL vs 2026 Duke DL | 316.3 lbs | 264.7 lbs |
| 2026 Duke OL vs 2026 North Carolina DL | 306.8 lbs | 277.9 lbs |
2026 North Carolina line yards 3.17 · 2026 Duke stuff rate 19.8%
2026 Duke line yards 3.30 · 2026 North Carolina stuff rate 9.3%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · North Carolina leads 18–8 since 2000
Duke has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Carolina 25–32 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2024 | North Carolina 20–21 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2023 | North Carolina 47–45 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2022 | North Carolina 38–35 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2021 | North Carolina 38–7 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2020 | North Carolina 56–24 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2019 | North Carolina 20–17 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2018 | North Carolina 35–42 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2017 | North Carolina 17–27 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2016 | North Carolina 27–28 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2015 | North Carolina 66–31 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2014 | North Carolina 45–20 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2013 | North Carolina 25–27 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2012 | North Carolina 30–33 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2011 | North Carolina 37–21 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2010 | North Carolina 24–19 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2009 | North Carolina 19–6 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2008 | North Carolina 28–20 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2007 | North Carolina 20–14 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2006 | North Carolina 45–44 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2005 | North Carolina 24–21 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2004 | North Carolina 40–17 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2003 | North Carolina 22–30 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2002 | North Carolina 23–21 Duke | Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke home |
| 2001 | North Carolina 52–17 Duke | Kenan Stadium · North Carolina home |
| 2000 | North Carolina 59–21 Duke | Duke home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Bill Belichick
OC
- Bobby Petrino
career average +33.0 SP+ offense
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 49% of its run–pass plays, 72nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 57.2 plays a game, 2nd percentile)
DC
- Stephen Belichick
- Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 2 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
- Stephen Belichick (2nd season; first 7 games)<br>Brian Belichick (interim; remainder of season)
career average +23.7 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Manny Diaz
OC
- Jonathan Brewer
career average +31.9 SP+ offense
Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Run-heavy, up-tempo (threw on 42% of its run–pass plays, 28th percentile of 2026 FBS; 71.8 plays a game, 81st percentile)
DC
- Jonathan Patke
career average +28.1 SP+ defense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
North Carolina at Duke · October 17, 2026
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