2026 New Mexico vs 2026 Central Michigan

Hypothetical

New Mexico by 14.9

86% to win

High confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

New MexicoIn-season results +12.0Preseason baseline −3.0

Central MichiganPreseason baseline −4.8In-season results −3.6

Central Michigan home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 New Mexico	2026 Central Michigan
Offensive / play	0.1962nd percentile	0.0625th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.1899th percentile	0.1522nd percentile
Points per game	43.497th percentile5 games	17.07th percentile6 games
per game	10.699th percentile5 games	26.330th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 New Mexico2026 Central Michigan

Momentum

New Mexico↗ rising (+66 pctl over 3 seasons)

Central Michigan→ steady (−2 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 New Mexico

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 10th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 80th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+69)

2026 Central Michigan

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 25th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 9th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−17)

Campus distance

1300 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 New Mexico OL vs 2026 Central Michigan DL	295.6 lbs	259.3 lbs
2026 Central Michigan OL vs 2026 New Mexico DL	287.6 lbs	250.8 lbs

2026 New Mexico line yards 3.27 · 2026 Central Michigan stuff rate 14.6%

2026 Central Michigan line yards 3.33 · 2026 New Mexico stuff rate 24.7%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · New Mexico leads 1–0 since 2000

New Mexico has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	New Mexico 38–7 Central Michigan	University Stadium (NM) · New Mexico home

Coaching & program context

2026 New Mexico

Jason Eck

Luke Schleusner

career average +25.4 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 31% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 42nd percentile)

Spence Nowinsky

career average +26.9 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Central Michigan

Matt Drinkall

Derek Fulton (co-OC)
Jim Chapin

career average +17.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Pro spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 32% of its run–pass plays, 4th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.0 plays a game, 3rd percentile)

Sean Cronin

career average +25.7 SP+ defense

Scheme: 3–4 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.