2026 Nevada vs 2026 North Dakota State

Hypothetical

North Dakota State by 5.6

63% to win

Medium confidence — 4 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

NevadaPreseason baseline −7.7In-season results +3.5

North Dakota StateIn-season results +6.0Preseason baseline −2.1

Nevada home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 North Dakota State Experience · returning production 2026: not on file

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Nevada	2026 North Dakota State
Offensive / play	0.1035th percentile	0.1239th percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.1232nd percentile	−0.1598th percentile
Points per game	27.844th percentile5 games	29.250th percentile6 games
per game	22.058th percentile5 games	10.399th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Nevada2026 North Dakota State

Momentum

Nevada↗ rising (+23 pctl over 3 seasons)

North Dakota StateNot enough history entering 2026

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Nevada

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 23rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 36th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

2026 North Dakota State

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 6th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 69th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+64)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for North Dakota State.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Nevada OL vs 2026 North Dakota State DL	298.8 lbs	268.0 lbs
2026 North Dakota State OL vs 2026 Nevada DL	300.1 lbs	266.5 lbs

2026 Nevada line yards 3.09 · 2026 North Dakota State stuff rate 18.9%

2026 North Dakota State line yards 3.00 · 2026 Nevada stuff rate 15.0%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · no meetings since 2000

These programs haven't met since 2000.

Coaching & program context

2026 Nevada

Jeff Choate

Brett Bartolone
David Gilbertson

career average +14.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.0 plays a game, 39th percentile)

Kane Ioane

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

Listed as Air raid on the 2026 page. Threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS.

2026 North Dakota State

Tim Polasek

OC: no staff data on file

Style: Run-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 37% of its run–pass plays, 12th percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.8 plays a game, 30th percentile)

DC: no staff data on file

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.