2026 Nebraska vs 2026 Bowling Green

Hypothetical

Nebraska by 26.0

97% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

NebraskaIn-season results +9.9Preseason baseline +8.3

Bowling GreenPreseason baseline −7.4In-season results −3.0

Bowling Green home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Nebraska	2026 Bowling Green
Offensive / play	0.3190th percentile	−0.038th percentile
PPA allowed / play	−0.0274th percentile	0.1328th percentile
Points per game	39.287th percentile6 games	15.84th percentile6 games
per game	15.288th percentile6 games	29.217th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Nebraska2026 Bowling Green

Momentum

Nebraska↗ rising (+25 pctl over 3 seasons)

Bowling Green↘ falling (−35 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Nebraska

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 72nd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 91st percentile

Outperforming its talent (+18)

2026 Bowling Green

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 29th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 8th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−20)

Campus distance

680 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Nebraska OL vs 2026 Bowling Green DL	303.3 lbs	267.9 lbs
2026 Bowling Green OL vs 2026 Nebraska DL	306.6 lbs	278.8 lbs

2026 Nebraska line yards 3.30 · 2026 Bowling Green stuff rate 17.3%

2026 Bowling Green line yards 2.60 · 2026 Nebraska stuff rate 17.6%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Nebraska leads 1–0 since 2000

Nebraska has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Nebraska 56–7 Bowling Green	Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Nebraska home

Coaching & program context

2026 Nebraska

Matt Rhule

Dana Holgorsen
Glenn Thomas (co-OC)

career average +31.9 SP+ offense

Scheme: Spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 46% of its run–pass plays, 47th percentile of 2026 FBS; 73.5 plays a game, 90th percentile)

Rob Aurich

career average +19.6 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

2026 Bowling Green

Eddie George

Greg Nosal

career average +23.6 SP+ offense

Scheme: Power spread (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 43% of its run–pass plays, 34th percentile of 2026 FBS; 58.3 plays a game, 4th percentile)

Joe Bowden

no career track record on file

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.