2026 Montana State vs 2026 Nevada

Hypothetical

No prediction

At Montana StateNeutral FieldAt Nevada

We don't rate 2026 teams yet

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

2026 Montana State: not an team that season
2026 Montana State: fewer than three dimensions, so no shape is drawn

Offensive production relative to that season’s FBS field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Montana State	2026 Nevada
Offensive / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.1035th percentile
PPA allowed / play	—not an FBS team that season	0.1232nd percentile
Points per game	20.0not an FBS team that season1 game	27.844th percentile5 games
per game	7.0not an FBS team that season1 game	22.058th percentile5 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Montana State2026 Nevada

Momentum

Montana StateNot enough history entering 2026

Nevada↗ rising (+23 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Montana State

No SP+ result for 2026 yet, so there is nothing to weigh talent against.

2026 Nevada

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 23rd percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 36th percentile

Outperforming its talent (+13)

Campus distance

No campus location on file for Montana State.

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Montana State OL vs 2026 Nevada DL	—	266.5 lbs
2026 Nevada OL vs 2026 Montana State DL	298.8 lbs	—

2026 Montana State line yards — · 2026 Nevada stuff rate 15.0%

2026 Nevada line yards 3.09 · 2026 Montana State stuff rate —

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Montana State leads 1–0 since 2000

Montana State has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Montana State 20–7 Nevada	Mackay Stadium · Nevada home

Coaching & program context

2026 Montana State

HC: no staff data on file

OC: no staff data on file

DC: no staff data on file

2026 Nevada

Jeff Choate

Brett Bartolone
David Gilbertson

career average +14.2 SP+ offense

Scheme: Air raid (listed on Wikipedia)

Style: Run-heavy, average pace (threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.0 plays a game, 39th percentile)

Kane Ioane

career average +26.1 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)

Listed as Air raid on the 2026 page. Threw on 40% of its run–pass plays, 19th percentile of 2026 FBS.

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.