2026 Mississippi State vs 2026 South Carolina
Hypothetical
51% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Mississippi State Offense · SP+ 2026: 37.8, 92nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Offense · SP+ 2026: 33.5, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Defense · SP+ 2026: 25.5, 53rd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Defense · SP+ 2026: 24.0, 62nd percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.3, 80th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 South Carolina Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Mississippi State Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 230.6 pts, 84th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 South Carolina Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 256.4 pts, 91st percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Mississippi State Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 South Carolina Experience · returning production 2026: 69% returning, 83rd percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Mississippi State | 2026 South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.2883rd percentile | 0.2169th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0936th percentile | 0.1328th percentile |
| Points per game | 39.086th percentile5 games | 37.782nd percentile6 games |
| per game | 28.020th percentile5 games | 25.538th percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 81st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 80th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 88th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 74th percentile
Campus distance
450 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Mississippi State OL vs 2026 South Carolina DL | 323.2 lbs | 274.3 lbs |
| 2026 South Carolina OL vs 2026 Mississippi State DL | 314.9 lbs | 286.9 lbs |
2026 Mississippi State line yards 3.03 · 2026 South Carolina stuff rate 23.2%
2026 South Carolina line yards 3.54 · 2026 Mississippi State stuff rate 13.7%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · South Carolina leads 8–2 since 2000
Mississippi State has won 1 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Mississippi State 41–34 South Carolina | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2023 | Mississippi State 30–37 South Carolina | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2016 | Mississippi State 27–14 South Carolina | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2013 | Mississippi State 16–34 South Carolina | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2011 | Mississippi State 12–14 South Carolina | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2007 | Mississippi State 21–38 South Carolina | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2006 | Mississippi State 0–15 South Carolina | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2002 | Mississippi State 10–34 South Carolina | Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina home |
| 2001 | Mississippi State 14–16 South Carolina | Davis Wade Stadium · Mississippi State home |
| 2000 | Mississippi State 19–23 South Carolina | South Carolina home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- Jeff Lebby
OC: no staff data on file
Scheme: Veer and shoot (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 59th percentile of 2026 FBS; 72.0 plays a game, 82nd percentile)
DC
- Zach Arnett
career average +19.2 SP+ defense
Scheme: 3–3–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
HC
- Shane Beamer
OC
- Kendal Briles
career average +33.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: Bear raid (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, up-tempo (threw on 47% of its run–pass plays, 52nd percentile of 2026 FBS; 74.2 plays a game, 91st percentile)
DC
- Clayton White
career average +24.0 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Scouting reports
No upcoming game between these teams is on the schedule.
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