2026 Minnesota vs 2026 Washington

Hypothetical

Washington by 3.8

61% to win

High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy

Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r

Why this number

MinnesotaPreseason baseline +6.9In-season results −2.6

WashingtonPreseason baseline +17.1In-season results −6.5

Minnesota home field +2.5

How they're built

0–100 percentile · higher is stronger

Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.

Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.

Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.

The numbers behind the profiles

Measure	2026 Minnesota	2026 Washington
Offensive / play	0.0522nd percentile	0.1343rd percentile
PPA allowed / play	0.0458th percentile	0.0070th percentile
Points per game	28.849th percentile6 games	26.236th percentile6 games
per game	21.860th percentile6 games	22.257th percentile6 games

Programs don't stand still

SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.

2026 Minnesota2026 Washington

Momentum

Minnesota↘ falling (−24 pctl over 3 seasons)

Washington→ steady (+6 pctl over 3 seasons)

Talent in, results out

Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.

2026 Minnesota

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 71st percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 57th percentile

Underperforming its talent (−14)

2026 Washington

Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026: 80th percentile
SP+ percentile, 2026: 63rd percentile

Underperforming its talent (−18)

Campus distance

1390 miles apart

There's more to the matchup.

Supporting context, ready when you want it.

In the trenches · both directions

Matchup	O-line	D-line
2026 Minnesota OL vs 2026 Washington DL	310.9 lbs	277.6 lbs
2026 Washington OL vs 2026 Minnesota DL	321.6 lbs	273.8 lbs

2026 Minnesota line yards 2.34 · 2026 Washington stuff rate 26.1%

2026 Washington line yards 2.90 · 2026 Minnesota stuff rate 20.8%

Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.

Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.

Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.

Head-to-head · Minnesota leads 1–0 since 2000

Minnesota has won 1 straight

Season	Score	Venue
2026	Minnesota 27–24 Washington	Husky Stadium · Washington home

Coaching & program context

2026 Minnesota

P.J. Fleck

Greg Harbaugh Jr.

career average +23.1 SP+ offense

Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)

Danny Collins
Nick Monroe (co-DC)

career average +19.5 SP+ defense

Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

2026 Washington

Jedd Fisch

OC: no staff data on file

Scheme: no scheme listed

Style: Pass-heavy, average pace (threw on 56% of its run–pass plays, 96th percentile of 2026 FBS; 66.2 plays a game, 40th percentile)

Ryan Walters

career average +19.8 SP+ defense

Scheme: Multiple 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)

A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.

Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.