2026 Minnesota vs 2026 Iowa
Hypothetical
80% to win
High confidence — 5 games in — see our accuracy
Hypothetical forecast · SBR sbr-2r
Our forecast for this game posts the Tuesday of game week.
Why this number
How they're built
0–100 percentile · higher is stronger
Compare the whole profile, then explore each dimension.
- 2026 Minnesota Offense · SP+ 2026: 25.0, 36th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Offense · SP+ 2026: 29.3, 64th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Defense · SP+ 2026: 22.1, 70th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Defense · SP+ 2026: 16.7, 90th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.0, 37th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Iowa Special teams · SP+ 2026: 0.4, 95th percentile (2026 season to date)
- 2026 Minnesota Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 226.7 pts, 80th percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Iowa Recruiting · 2026 signing class: 228.6 pts, 82nd percentile (2026 signing class)
- 2026 Minnesota Experience · returning production 2026: 65% returning, 76th percentile (2026 roster)
- 2026 Iowa Experience · returning production 2026: 34% returning, 39th percentile (2026 roster)
Offensive production relative to that season’s field. Compare an offense with the opposing defense in the scouting report.
Recruiting and experience add context; the five axes aren't equal weights in the forecast.
The numbers behind the profiles
| Measure | 2026 Minnesota | 2026 Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive / play | 0.0522nd percentile | 0.1857th percentile |
| PPA allowed / play | 0.0458th percentile | −0.0274th percentile |
| Points per game | 28.849th percentile6 games | 31.055th percentile6 games |
| per game | 21.860th percentile6 games | 14.591st percentile6 games |
Programs don't stand still
SP+ percentile among FBS teams, by season. The marked point is each compared season.
Momentum
Talent in, results out
Recruiting-class percentile feeding each roster, compared with its SP+ result.
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 71st percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 57th percentile
- Average signing-class percentile, classes 2023–2026
- 75th percentile
- SP+ percentile, 2026
- 82nd percentile
Campus distance
245 miles apart
There's more to the matchup.
Supporting context, ready when you want it.
In the trenches · both directions
| Matchup | O-line | D-line |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Minnesota OL vs 2026 Iowa DL | 310.9 lbs | 275.0 lbs |
| 2026 Iowa OL vs 2026 Minnesota DL | 302.4 lbs | 273.8 lbs |
2026 Minnesota line yards 2.34 · 2026 Iowa stuff rate 19.2%
2026 Iowa line yards 3.44 · 2026 Minnesota stuff rate 20.8%
Fans swear big lines win games. They're half right — big-line teams do win more, but only because good programs recruit big linemen. Once we account for talent and last season, line size adds nothing to the prediction. Across 11 seasons, no measurable effect on margin.
Roster size is context. It isn't a forecast advantage.
Backtested effect: 0.42 pts at 1σ.
Head-to-head · Iowa leads 20–6 since 2000
Iowa has won 2 straight
| Season | Score | Venue |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Minnesota 3–41 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2024 | Minnesota 14–31 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2023 | Minnesota 12–10 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2022 | Minnesota 10–13 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2021 | Minnesota 22–27 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2020 | Minnesota 7–35 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2019 | Minnesota 19–23 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2018 | Minnesota 31–48 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2017 | Minnesota 10–17 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2016 | Minnesota 7–14 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2015 | Minnesota 35–40 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2014 | Minnesota 51–14 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2013 | Minnesota 7–23 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2012 | Minnesota 13–31 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2011 | Minnesota 22–21 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2010 | Minnesota 27–24 Iowa | Huntington Bank Stadium · Minnesota home |
| 2009 | Minnesota 0–12 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2008 | Minnesota 0–55 Iowa | Minnesota home |
| 2007 | Minnesota 16–21 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2006 | Minnesota 34–24 Iowa | Minnesota home |
| 2005 | Minnesota 28–52 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2004 | Minnesota 27–29 Iowa | Minnesota home |
| 2003 | Minnesota 22–40 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2002 | Minnesota 21–45 Iowa | Minnesota home |
| 2001 | Minnesota 24–42 Iowa | Kinnick Stadium · Iowa home |
| 2000 | Minnesota 27–24 Iowa | Minnesota home |
Coaching & program context
HC
- P.J. Fleck
OC
- Greg Harbaugh Jr.
career average +23.1 SP+ offense
Scheme: Multiple (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
Style: Pass-heavy, grind-it-out (threw on 54% of its run–pass plays, 93rd percentile of 2026 FBS; 64.0 plays a game, 25th percentile)
DC
- Danny Collins
- Nick Monroe (co-DC)
career average +19.5 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–3 (listed on Wikipedia, 2025 listing)
HC
- Kirk Ferentz
OC
- Tim Lester
career average +29.7 SP+ offense
Scheme: West Coast (listed on Wikipedia)
Style: Balanced, grind-it-out (threw on 48% of its run–pass plays, 64th percentile of 2026 FBS; 62.5 plays a game, 17th percentile)
DC
- Phil Parker
career average +15.6 SP+ defense
Scheme: 4–2–5 (listed on Wikipedia)
A new coordinator feels like it should swing a game. Across 11 seasons, the change doesn't move the final margin beyond what the roster already tells us. Shown as context, not a factor in our number.
Run-heavy team meets a defense that can't stop the run — feels like extra points waiting. Across 7 seasons the matchup adds nothing beyond what the two ratings already say; if anything the point estimate leans the other way.
Watching the next one?
Iowa at Minnesota · October 24, 2026
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